City Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Coffee Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Coffee Shop to succeed.

•17 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-ranked city for Coffee Shop is Chicago: 83.5% at a good address, 71.2% at a typical address
  • Dallas is left out of this ranking while a gap in its input data is repaired, and San Antonio is left out because it has too few scored locations to rank fairly
  • 11 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Coffee Shop survivability at a typical address
  • The lowest-ranked city is San Diego at 74.1%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Coffee Shop: 69.9%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Chicago ranks as the #1 city for opening a Coffee Shop in the United States, with an 83.5% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are San Francisco with 83.5%, and Washington DC with 83.5%. StreetSpring's 22-city analysis places the national average for Coffee Shops at 69.9%, a baseline that Chicago comfortably exceeds. However, the specific location is very important: there are excellent locations even in neighborhoods that might not appear to be a great fit at the city level. Use this data to narrow your shortlist, then visit each top city in person to assess foot traffic and competitive density.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Coffee Shops city survivability range chart: Chicago vs San Diego (2026)

Best-to-worst Coffee Shop survivability within individual metros: Chicago, San Francisco, Denver, Phoenix and San Diego. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 22 Cities Ranked for Coffee Shops

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Coffee Shops:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years at a good address
1ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN83.5%
2San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA83.5%
3Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV83.5%
4PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD83.5%
5New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ83.5%
6SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA83.1%
7PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA83.1%
8MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL83.1%
9Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA83.1%
10BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH83.1%
11CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC82.7%
12DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO82.7%
13AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA82.7%
14OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL82.7%
15MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI82.7%
16DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI82.2%
17St. LouisSt. Louis, MO-IL82.2%
18BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD81.3%
19HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX80.8%
20Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL80.8%
21PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ78.2%
22San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA74.1%

1. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

2. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

3. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

4. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

5. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

6. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

7. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

8. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

9. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

10. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

11. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

12. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

13. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

14. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

15. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

16. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

17. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL

18. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

19. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

20. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

21. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

22. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

Key Insights

Moderate variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Chicago at 83.5%) and the #22 city (San Diego at 74.1%) is 9.40 percentage points. Coffee Shops score at effectively the same level across the top two metros. Picking the right city is not the lever here.

National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Coffee Shop is 69.9%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Coffee Shops:

  • Strong survivability signals: Chicago leads with a 71% average chance of lasting two or more years for Coffee Shops: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Coffee Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Neighborhood diversity: Within each top city, high-survivability zones appear across multiple neighborhood types, from dense urban cores to established suburban strips.
  • Economic conditions: The rankings for Coffee Shops account for Census neighborhood characteristics, including median household income and the housing vacancy rate, alongside competition and consumer spending.

StreetSpring analyzes millions of data points with AI to forecast business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods. Our platform has analyzed hundreds of thousands of business outcomes across major U.S. metros. Our forecasting system combines proprietary data with machine learning models unavailable anywhere else.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Coffee Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Coffee Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Coffee Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Coffee Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Coffee Shop?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Coffee Shops across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Coffee Shops, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that a Coffee Shop lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Coffee Shops?

Chicago ranks as the #1 city in the US for Coffee Shops survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 71% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Chicago, a Coffee Shop has approximately a 71% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. San Francisco ranks second, followed by Washington DC. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Chicago, San Francisco, Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City, Seattle, Portland, Miami, Los Angeles, Boston, Charlotte, Denver, Atlanta, Orlando, Minneapolis, Detroit, St. Louis, Baltimore, Houston, Tampa Bay, Phoenix, San Diego. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.