Survivability Rankings for Coffee Shop in San Francisco
2026 ranking of San Francisco neighborhoods to open a Coffee Shop, at a good address, from Financial District/South Beach (84.0% survival) to Colony Park.
By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: October 2026 | Methodology
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- #1 Neighborhood: Financial District/South Beach: 84.0% at a good address, 81.6% at a typical address for Coffee Shop (45 ranked neighborhoods share the 84.0% good-address figure)
- Neighborhoods at or above 70% at a typical address: 86 of 107 ranked
- Average across the 107 ranked neighborhoods (typical address): 73.4% for Coffee Shops
- Most challenging area: Colony Park: 57.6% at a good address, 54.5% at a typical address
- Revenue Capture Score: the most important factor in choosing a location, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address
- Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods
- Where Would a Coffee Shop Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider?
- Where Should I Start?
- FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
- FAQ: Can a Coffee Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
- FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
- FAQ: Is a Coffee Shop a Good Tenant?
- Landlord Survivability Data
- Best Neighborhoods for Any Business
Summary
Opening a Coffee Shop in San Francisco? Our 2026 analysis identifies Financial District/South Beach as the top location, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address and 81.6% at a typical address (45 ranked neighborhoods share the 84.0% good-address figure). Its highest scored address is at 84.0% and its lowest at 53.4%. The last-ranked neighborhood is Colony Park, at 57.6% at a good address and 54.5% at a typical address. Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation: your exact block could significantly outperform.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open a Coffee Shop?
Financial District/South Beach ranks #1 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods in and around San Francisco for Coffee Shop survivability, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:
| Rank | Neighborhood | Metro | At a good address | Average (typical address) | Best Locations | Challenging Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Financial District/South Beach | San Francisco | 84.0% | 81.6% | 84.0% | 53.4% |
| 2 | Bushrod | San Francisco | 84.0% | 81.6% | 84.0% | 75.0% |
| 3 | Outer Richmond | San Francisco | 84.0% | 81.4% | 84.0% | 64.2% |
| 4 | Rockridge | San Francisco | 84.0% | 81.1% | 84.0% | 68.7% |
| 5 | Bernal Heights | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.8% | 84.0% | 62.8% |
| 6 | Lorin | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.6% | 84.0% | 66.9% |
| 7 | Piedmont Avenue | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.4% | 84.0% | 62.4% |
| 8 | Hayes Valley | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.3% | 84.0% | 49.4% |
| 9 | North Berkeley | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.3% | 84.0% | 74.1% |
| 10 | Nob Hill | San Francisco | 84.0% | 80.1% | 84.0% | 63.3% |
Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data. StreetSpring refreshes survivability data continuously: check the tool for the most current score at any address.
The ranking runs on the good-address figure (the 90th percentile of the scored addresses in each neighborhood). Average is the typical address; Best and Challenging Locations are the highest and lowest scored address in the neighborhood. Every figure is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, as printed in the linked file. See our full methodology →
Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.
Where in or Around San Francisco Would a Coffee Shop Make the Most Money?
Where a Coffee Shop would make the most money in or around San Francisco comes down to the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address.
Financial District/South Beach is ranked #1 for Coffee Shop survivability, at 84.0% at a good address and 81.6% at a typical address; Colony Park is ranked last of the 107, at 57.6% at a good address and 54.5% at a typical address. Revenue at a specific storefront is what the Revenue Capture Score estimates, so check it for each address you are weighing.
Where you sign the lease is a choice you can check against the published scores before you commit. Opening a Coffee Shop in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods, the average projected chance that a new Coffee Shop lasts two or more years is 73.4% at a typical address. Our models show that the optimal location profile varies dramatically from one business category to the next.
What Should I Consider When Opening a Coffee Shop in or Around San Francisco?
When selecting a location for a Coffee Shop in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. The most important factor for a business's success is the Revenue Capture Score for the business at the location it selects. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. Our platform incorporates data from thousands of neighborhoods nationwide. Clustering works when it draws more customers to the area than any single business could alone. StreetSpring's proprietary algorithms power these predictions. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
This can be summarized as:
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Related: Survivability Score: How We Calculate It & Why It Matters
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. For the most accurate predictions, always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform.
Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start a Coffee Shop?
StreetSpring's analysis shows the best areas are Financial District/South Beach, Bushrod, and Outer Richmond, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Colony Park, Thousand Oaks, and Clayton (Concord). Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation: your exact block could significantly outperform. New competitor openings and closures happen weekly: the live tool ensures you see the latest picture.
Related Articles:
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- National City Survivability: Coffee Shop
- National Neighborhood Survivability: Coffee Shop
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open a Coffee Shop?
Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Coffee Shop in San Francisco is Financial District/South Beach, at 84.0% at a good address and 81.6% at a typical address (45 ranked neighborhoods share the 84.0% good-address figure), followed by Bushrod and Outer Richmond. 86 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.
StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.
Can a Coffee Shop Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?
Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. These rankings are based on the latest available data; check StreetSpring for real-time updates. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.
How Often Are Coffee Shop Rankings in San Francisco Updated?
StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.
Is a Coffee Shop a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?
In Financial District/South Beach, the projected chance that a new Coffee Shop lasts two or more years is 81.6% at a typical address and 84.0% at a good address, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.
Landlord Survivability Data for Coffee Shop in San Francisco
If you own commercial property in San Francisco and are considering a Coffee Shop tenant, here is what the data shows: Financial District/South Beach is ranked first (81.6% at a typical address), Bushrod second (81.6% at a typical address), and Outer Richmond third (81.4% at a typical address). Get a live Survivability Score for your specific storefront in the live tool.
With StreetSpring, you can see the precise probability of success for countless business models at any exact location.
Related: How Landlord Representatives Can Reduce Vacancy & Increase Tenant Longevity
What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?
You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.
Related Resources
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Coffee Shop compares to all other business types in San Francisco
- Best Cities to Open a Coffee Shop in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Coffee Shop
- Business Survivability in Financial District/South Beach, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Bushrod, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
- Business Survivability in Outer Richmond, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the figures shown here.