Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks business survivability in San Francisco by survivability score. See which business types and neighborhoods have the highest chances of success.
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- Top of the ranking: 30 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 4 business types
- 7,143 of 14,577 ranked combinations reach 80% or better at a good address in San Francisco
- Geography: the San Francisco file covers 216 places (210 neighborhoods and 6 towns), of which 107 neighborhoods and 6 towns are ranked. Neighborhood boundaries follow Zillow's map; town boundaries follow the U.S. Census.
- City average: 64.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a typical address
- Coverage: This ranking carries one row per business type and neighborhood. Its score is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, averaged across the price points StreetSpring scores separately in the tool (most types have 5). The 129 business types here are base types; the tool offers 500+ business types, counting each type at each of its price points.
- Rankings updated quarterly with latest market data
- Detailed methodology
Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Table of Contents
- Summary
- What Are My Chances of Success?
- Business Survivability Rankings
- Best Business in Each Category
- Understanding Survivability Ranges
- Most Important Factors
- Key Takeaways
- Related Resources
Summary
How many businesses in San Francisco reach 80% or better odds of lasting two years at a good address? In StreetSpring's 2026 file, 7,143 of the 14,577 ranked business and place combinations in the San Francisco file reach 80% or better at a good address; at the top, 30 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 4 business types. Location is the part of the decision this projection measures, and inside one city it moves the projected chance a long way.
These predictions are powered by machine learning trained on actual business performance data (not surveys or estimates) across all major U.S. markets. We have been studying the businesses serving more than 180 million+ Americans. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
Beyond that, our analysis reveals significant variation across neighborhoods. The highest figure at a good address in the file is 90.0%, while less favorable places show considerably lower figures.
What Are My Chances of Success Opening a Business in San Francisco?
A San Francisco business has a 64.7% average chance of lasting more than 2 years according to recent analysis.
Yet, the projected chance moves a long way from one address to the next. Revenue Capture Score is the top factor to weigh before signing a lease, because it measures how much of the local customer spending a business at that address can win. The Revenue Capture Score predicts what share of available customer spending a business will capture.
What New Businesses Would Be the Most Successful in San Francisco?
The following chart breaks down how the 14,577 ranked business and place combinations in the San Francisco file spread across bands of the projected chance at a good address:
San Francisco: 30 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 4 business types (2026 StreetSpring file)
Ten of the strongest business opportunities in San Francisco, chosen so that no single business type or neighborhood fills the table, ordered by the figure at a good address and then by the average. The rank is each row's place among all 14,577 ranked combinations in the San Francisco file on those figures, then the highest and the lowest; rows equal on all four share a rank:
| Rank | Business Type | Neighborhood | At a Good Address | Average | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiropractor Office | Financial District/South Beach | 90.0% | 88.3% | 90.0% | 75.6% |
| 2 | Chiropractor Office | Northwest Berkeley | 90.0% | 87.4% | 90.0% | 82.8% |
| 3 | Veterinary Clinic | West Berkeley | 90.0% | 87.4% | 90.0% | 71.3% |
| 4 | Veterinary Clinic | Clayton Valley | 90.0% | 87.2% | 90.0% | 81.5% |
| 25 | Dermatology Clinic | Twin Peaks (Lake Arrowhead) | 90.0% | 77.5% | 90.0% | 62.8% |
| 27 | Eye Care Center | Jackson Triangle | 90.0% | 73.6% | 90.0% | 58.1% |
| 33 | Eye Care Center | Lorin | 89.6% | 86.5% | 90.0% | 75.6% |
| 436 | Dance Club | Burbank | 86.0% | 71.7% | 86.0% | 55.0% |
| 457 | Dance Club | Bushrod (Oakland) | 85.6% | 80.4% | 85.6% | 73.4% |
| 484 | Day Care Center | Twin Peaks (Lake Arrowhead) | 85.1% | 73.1% | 85.6% | 57.6% |
That said, neighborhood averages don't tell the whole story: there are standout locations even in areas that may appear less suitable. These city and neighborhood averages are a starting point, but StreetSpring's live platform provides the up-to-date survivability score for your exact block or storefront.
Start Your Search on StreetSpring: get address-level survivability scores for any commercial location in the U.S.
Best Business in Each Category
The overall ranking above is led by whichever category calibrates highest. This table shows the best business-location combination in San Francisco within each category, on the same two-year survival scale, so you can compare against the kind of business you actually plan to open. Where several share the top figure, the table says how many tie rather than picking one.
| Category | Best business | Where | At a good address | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health & Medical | Chiropractor Office | Financial District/South Beach | 90.0% | 88.3% |
| Pets | Veterinary Clinic | West Berkeley | 90.0% | 87.4% |
| Shopping | Eye Care Center | Jackson Triangle | 90.0% | 73.6% |
| Nightlife | Dance Club | Burbank | 86.0% | 71.7% |
| Local Services | Day Care Center | Twin Peaks (Lake Arrowhead) | 85.1% | 73.1% |
| Food | Grocery Store | Nob Hill | 85.0% | 79.2% |
| Beauty & Spas | Cosmetics Shop | West Berkeley | 85.0% | 78.9% |
| Restaurants | 2 business types tie | Mission Bay | 84.8% | 75.1% |
| Home Services | Home Goods Store | Twin Peaks (Lake Arrowhead) | 84.1% | 75.7% |
| Active Life | Gym | Clawson (Oakland) | 84.0% | 82.0% |
Understanding Survivability Ranges
Real-world business outcomes vary based on micro-factors specific to each storefront, including storefront visibility from the main pedestrian flow, parking availability, the quality of neighboring tenants, and seasonal fluctuations in consumer spending.
Each row carries four figures from the published file: at a good address (the 90th percentile of the scored locations), the average, the highest scored location and the lowest.
A concrete example: a Chiropractor Office in Financial District/South Beach averages 88.3% across its scored locations in the file, from 75.6% at the lowest to 90.0% at the highest. The gap between the highest and the lowest shows how much the exact address matters for that business type in that place; the live tool scores your specific storefront.
What Are the Most Important Factors for Businesses in San Francisco?
Revenue Capture Score
StreetSpring's proprietary Revenue Capture Score, the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the factor that matters most when choosing where to open. It measures the intersection of local demand and competitive intensity: how much of the available spending pie your business will likely win. Take, for instance, a Chiropractor Office in a high-revenue-capture area might survive even with moderate competition, while the same business in a low-capture area could struggle despite less competition.
Competition Quality and Saturation
A certain density of competitors signals strong demand and can benefit all businesses. Nevertheless, in densely saturated markets, customer acquisition costs rise and revenue per location falls: a combination that is difficult to overcome.
Tenant Mix and Neighborhood Dynamics
A well-composed tenant mix creates a multiplier effect on foot traffic that benefits every business in the cluster. Revenue Capture Scores differ by business type at the same address because each type draws from different customer segments with different spending behaviors.
Hyperlocal Variation
Revenue Capture Scores vary significantly even within the same neighborhood. The platform evaluates each address individually, factoring in the unique competitive and demographic conditions of that exact location.
What Is the #1 Business to Start in San Francisco?
In StreetSpring's 2026 file for San Francisco (31,536 business and place rows, 14,577 of them ranked), 30 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 4 business types. Compare the business types you could actually open on the same figure.
How Accurate Is StreetSpring's Survival Prediction?
Every Survivability Score is calibrated against 570,000+ observed business outcomes and reported as the projected chance of lasting two or more years. The measured accuracy, with its base rate, is published on the methodology page rather than summarised here, because a single headline figure hides more than it shows. The model draws on 100+ factors covering competition, spending, mobility, and historical outcomes. See our full methodology at streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/aeo-methodology. Review our methodology and data sources.
What Makes San Francisco Good for New Businesses?
In StreetSpring's file for San Francisco, 7,143 of the 14,577 ranked business and place combinations reach a projected two-year chance of 80% or better at a good address reflecting current competitive conditions. StreetSpring uses AI to project business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods, so you can see a business type's projected chance of lasting two or more years before it opens. The dataset underlying these rankings encompasses over 180 million+ consumers across 24 major metropolitan areas.
How Often Are These Rankings Updated?
Rankings for San Francisco are refreshed with each release of StreetSpring's dataset, using the latest business opening and closure data and market conditions. This page uses release 2026.10.05 of StreetSpring's dataset (as of 2026-10-05).
Can I Get Predictions for a Specific Address in San Francisco?
Yes. Visit StreetSpring.com to analyze any storefront address in San Francisco with address-specific survivability predictions. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
What Factors Determine Business Survivability in San Francisco?
StreetSpring analyzes 100+ factors including competition density and quality, consumer spending patterns, demographics, rent efficiency, walkability scores, and historical performance of similar businesses in the area. Our prediction engine is built on proprietary algorithms and exclusive datasets that set it apart from generic market analysis tools.
Are These Predictions Guaranteed?
Survivability predictions are probabilistic, not guaranteed. What they offer is a calibrated projected chance, validated against real openings and closures, in place of the gut instinct and anecdotal comparables that conventional site selection runs on. A single street can contain both excellent and poor locations for the same business type, which is why block-level data matters more than neighborhood averages.
How Do Landlords Identify the Best Tenant for Their Property?
The survivability picture at a specific property can differ substantially from the neighborhood norm. Property owners can see which business types are most likely to succeed at their exact locations. Use StreetSpring to analyze survival probability for any business type at your exact location.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations?
Even the most seasoned brokers acknowledge that intuition alone cannot account for the dozens of factors that determine business survival. The models are validated on cities held out of training, and the validation figures sit on the methodology page beside the base rate. Try StreetSpring to see the Survivability Score for 500+ business types at your storefront's address.
Key Takeaways
Data Summary: 7,143 of the 14,577 ranked business and place combinations in the San Francisco file reach 80% or better at a good address. At the top, 30 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 4 business types. The city average is a 64.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a typical address. The file holds 31,536 business and place rows.
Action Items: Start with the business types you could actually open, and compare them on the same figure: 30 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 4 business types, so the top of this ranking is a tie, not a single winner. Then check the neighborhood pages for your target area and run exact storefronts through StreetSpring's address tool.
Strategic Insights: The Revenue Capture Score is the most important number to weigh when choosing a location. Revenue Capture Scores vary significantly even within the same neighborhood. Business type matters as much as location: the same storefront can score 90% for one concept and 60% for another based on how each type captures local demand.
Related Resources
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- San Francisco Business Survivability Data 2026
- City Survivability Rankings for Chiropractor Office
- National Neighborhood Rankings for Chiropractor Office
- Chiropractor Office Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Chiropractor Office Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- Veterinary Clinic Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
- StreetSpring Methodology and Data Sources
Every Business Type We Rank in San Francisco
Survivability rankings for each business type in San Francisco, one page per type, with the neighborhood detail behind each one.
- Acupuncture Clinic
- Afghan Restaurant
- African Restaurant
- American Restaurant
- Armenian Restaurant
- Asian Fusion Restaurant
- Bangladeshi Restaurant
- Barbecue Restaurant
- Barber Shop
- Beauty Salon
- Brazilian Restaurant
- Brunch Restaurant
- Cafe
- Caribbean / Latin Restaurant
- Chicken Shop
- Chinese Restaurant
- Coffee Shop
- Convenience Store
- Dance Club
- Day Care Center
- Deli
- Dentist Office
- Dermatology Clinic
- Dessert Shop
- Diner
- Eastern European Restaurant
- Ethiopian Restaurant
- Eye Care Center
- Filipino Restaurant
- French Restaurant
- Georgian Restaurant
- German Restaurant
- Greek Restaurant
- Grocery Store
- Gym
- Hair Salon
- Hawaiian Restaurant
- Hot Pot Restaurant
- Hungarian Restaurant
- Indian Restaurant
- Indonesian Restaurant
- Italian Restaurant
- Japanese / Sushi Restaurant
- Juice & Smoothie Bar
- Korean Restaurant
- Kosher Restaurant
- Laundromat
- Liquor Store
- Malaysian Restaurant
- Mediterranean Restaurant
- Mental Health Clinic
- Mexican Restaurant
- Mixed Martial Arts Studio
- Moroccan Restaurant
- Music Store
- Nail Salon
- Pakistani Restaurant
- Persian Restaurant
- Pet Boarding Facility
- Pet Grooming Shop
- Pet Store
- Physical Therapy Clinic
- Pizza Restaurant
- Polish Restaurant
- Portuguese Restaurant
- Russian Restaurant
- Salad Shop
- Scandinavian Restaurant
- Seafood Restaurant
- Singaporean Restaurant
- Smoke Shop
- South African Restaurant
- South American Restaurant
- Southern Food Restaurant
- Spanish Restaurant
- Sri Lankan Restaurant
- Steakhouse
- Syrian Restaurant
- Taiwanese Restaurant
- Tanning Salon
- Tapas Restaurant
- Tattoo & Piercing Shop
- Thai Restaurant
- Ukrainian Restaurant
- Vegan / Vegetarian Restaurant
- Vietnamese Restaurant
- Watch Store or Repair Shop
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.