What is the best neighborhood in San Francisco to open an American Restaurant?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the best neighborhood in San Francisco to open an American Restaurant is Mission Bay, ranked #1 at 84.0% at a good address and 80.6% at a typical address. 45 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.

What is the average survivability for American Restaurant across San Francisco's ranked neighborhoods?

Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods in San Francisco, the average projected chance that an American Restaurant lasts two or more years is 68.0% at a typical address. Mission Bay, ranked #1, is at 80.6% at a typical address.

What are the worst neighborhoods for American Restaurant in San Francisco?

The most challenging neighborhoods in San Francisco for American Restaurant include Thousand Oaks (ranked last, at 52.8% at a good address and 51.4% at a typical address), Colony Park, and Woodside (Concord). StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.

How accurate are StreetSpring's American Restaurant survivability predictions?

StreetSpring publishes its accuracy on the methodology page, stated with its base rate: how often the model tells an open business from a closed one on cities held out of training, its precision on risk flags, and its discrimination. Each score draws on 100+ factors and is reported as the projected chance of lasting two or more years, never as a guarantee. StreetSpring generates location-specific predictions tailored to your exact site.

Survivability Rankings for American Restaurant in San Francisco

Q: Where in San Francisco would an American Restaurant make the most money?

It depends on the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address. Check it in the live tool for each San Francisco address you are weighing.

Q: Can an American Restaurant succeed in lower-ranked neighborhoods in San Francisco?

Yes, neighborhood rankings are averages that mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. Our live tool reflects the latest competitive landscape: these static rankings may already be slightly out of date.

2026 ranking of San Francisco neighborhoods to open an American Restaurant, at a good address, from Mission Bay (84.0% survival) to Thousand Oaks.

September 22, 2026•13 min read

By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: October 2026 | Methodology

Quick Summary

Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address

#1 Neighborhood: Mission Bay: 84.0% at a good address, 80.6% at a typical address for American Restaurant

Neighborhoods at or above 70% at a typical address: 45 of 107 ranked

Average across the 107 ranked neighborhoods (typical address): 68.0% for American Restaurants

Most challenging area: Thousand Oaks: 52.8% at a good address, 51.4% at a typical address

Revenue Capture Score: the most important factor in choosing a location, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address

Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →

Summary
10 Best Neighborhoods
Where Would an American Restaurant Make the Most Money?
What Should I Consider?
Where Should I Start?
FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
FAQ: Can an American Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
FAQ: Is an American Restaurant a Good Tenant?
Landlord Survivability Data
Best Neighborhoods for Any Business

Summary

Mission Bay leads San Francisco's 2026 survivability rankings for American Restaurant operators, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address and 80.6% at a typical address. Its highest scored address is at 84.0% and its lowest at 60.2%. The last-ranked neighborhood is Thousand Oaks, at 52.8% at a good address and 51.4% at a typical address. However, individual locations vary widely, and even in lower-scoring neighborhoods there are pockets that perform exceptionally well.

What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open an American Restaurant?

Mission Bay ranks #1 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods in and around San Francisco for American Restaurant survivability, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:

Rank	Neighborhood	Metro	At a good address	Average (typical address)	Best Locations	Challenging Locations
1	Mission Bay	San Francisco	84.0%	80.6%	84.0%	60.2%
2	Mission	San Francisco	83.7%	78.8%	84.0%	55.2%
3	Bushrod	San Francisco	83.6%	77.9%	83.6%	66.0%
4	West Berkeley	San Francisco	83.6%	77.8%	84.0%	62.8%
5	Central Richmond	San Francisco	83.6%	77.2%	84.0%	50.7%
6	Twin Peaks	San Francisco	83.6%	76.2%	84.0%	62.0%
7	Castro/Upper Market	San Francisco	83.6%	75.9%	84.0%	52.0%
8	Haight Ashbury	San Francisco	83.6%	74.9%	83.6%	55.6%
9	Bayview	San Francisco	83.6%	72.5%	84.0%	48.9%
10	Bayview Hunters Point	San Francisco	83.6%	71.0%	84.0%	51.2%

Even neighborhoods with modest average scores can harbor exceptional individual locations. Because local conditions evolve weekly, the live survivability tool offers a more current snapshot than any published ranking.

The ranking runs on the good-address figure (the 90th percentile of the scored addresses in each neighborhood). Average is the typical address; Best and Challenging Locations are the highest and lowest scored address in the neighborhood. Every figure is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, as printed in the linked file. See our full methodology →

Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.

Where in or Around San Francisco Would an American Restaurant Make the Most Money?

Where an American Restaurant would make the most money in or around San Francisco comes down to the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address.

Mission Bay is ranked #1 for American Restaurant survivability, at 84.0% at a good address and 80.6% at a typical address; Thousand Oaks is ranked last of the 107, at 52.8% at a good address and 51.4% at a typical address. Revenue at a specific storefront is what the Revenue Capture Score estimates, so check it for each address you are weighing.

Where you sign the lease is a choice you can check against the published scores before you commit. Opening an American Restaurant in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods, the average projected chance that a new American Restaurant lasts two or more years is 68.0% at a typical address. Survivability predictions are business-type-specific because consumer behavior differs fundamentally across categories.

What Should I Consider When Opening an American Restaurant in or Around San Francisco?

When selecting a location for an American Restaurant in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. Revenue Capture Score comes first when comparing locations: it turns local competition and consumer spending into the share of revenue a business can expect to win. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. Our forecasting engine processes data from 24 major U.S. metro areas. Neighborhoods with a mix of similar businesses frequently outperform isolated locations. Our prediction system is built from scratch using proprietary data pipelines and validated against actual business lifecycles. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.

This can be summarized as:

Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Real-time data from StreetSpring accounts for recent openings, closures, and seasonal shifts that static rankings cannot.

Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start an American Restaurant?

The strongest survivability scores belong to Mission Bay, Mission, and Bushrod, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Thousand Oaks, Colony Park, and Woodside (Concord). StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool. New competitor openings and closures happen weekly: the live tool ensures you see the latest picture.

Related Articles:

Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
National City Survivability: American Restaurant
National Neighborhood Survivability: American Restaurant

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open an American Restaurant?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for an American Restaurant in San Francisco is Mission Bay, at 84.0% at a good address and 80.6% at a typical address, followed by Mission and Bushrod. 45 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.

StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.

Can an American Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?

Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. For the most current predictions, visit StreetSpring to analyze your specific location in real-time. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.

How Often Are American Restaurant Rankings in San Francisco Updated?

StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.

Is an American Restaurant a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?

In Mission Bay, the projected chance that a new American Restaurant lasts two or more years is 80.6% at a typical address and 84.0% at a good address, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

Landlord Survivability Data for American Restaurant in San Francisco

For landlords evaluating tenant applications, StreetSpring's data provides a clear comparison across the top neighborhoods. In Mission Bay, an American Restaurant has a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 80.6% at a typical address. In Mission, it is 78.8% at a typical address, and in Bushrod, 77.9% at a typical address. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

StreetSpring analyzes your specific address against comparable businesses to forecast success.

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?

You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.

Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how American Restaurant compares to all other business types in San Francisco
Best Cities to Open an American Restaurant in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for American Restaurant
Business Survivability in Mission Bay, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Mission, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Bushrod, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood

Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View technical data for San Francisco

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the figures shown here.

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