What is the best neighborhood in San Francisco to open an Italian Restaurant?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the best neighborhood in San Francisco to open an Italian Restaurant is Mission Bay, ranked #1 at 84.0% at a good address and 75.9% at a typical address. 39 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.

What is the average survivability for Italian Restaurant across San Francisco's ranked neighborhoods?

Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods in San Francisco, the average projected chance that an Italian Restaurant lasts two or more years is 66.7% at a typical address. Mission Bay, ranked #1, is at 75.9% at a typical address.

What are the worst neighborhoods for Italian Restaurant in San Francisco?

The most challenging neighborhoods in San Francisco for Italian Restaurant include Colony Park (ranked last, at 52.6% at a good address and 50.4% at a typical address), Thousand Oaks, and Woodside (Concord). StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool.

How accurate are StreetSpring's Italian Restaurant survivability predictions?

StreetSpring publishes its accuracy on the methodology page, stated with its base rate: how often the model tells an open business from a closed one on cities held out of training, its precision on risk flags, and its discrimination. Each score draws on 100+ factors and is reported as the projected chance of lasting two or more years, never as a guarantee. StreetSpring can give you the precise likelihood that hundreds of different businesses will last at an exact address.

Survivability Rankings for Italian Restaurant in San Francisco

Q: Where in San Francisco would an Italian Restaurant make the most money?

It depends on the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address. Check it in the live tool for each San Francisco address you are weighing.

Q: Can an Italian Restaurant succeed in lower-ranked neighborhoods in San Francisco?

Yes, neighborhood rankings are averages that mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. Market dynamics shift frequently; validate these insights with real-time data from StreetSpring.

2026 ranking of San Francisco neighborhoods to open an Italian Restaurant, at a good address, from Mission Bay (84.0% survival) to Colony Park.

September 22, 2026•13 min read

By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: October 2026 | Methodology

Quick Summary

Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address

#1 Neighborhood: Mission Bay: 84.0% at a good address, 75.9% at a typical address for Italian Restaurant

Neighborhoods at or above 70% at a typical address: 39 of 107 ranked

Average across the 107 ranked neighborhoods (typical address): 66.7% for Italian Restaurants

Most challenging area: Colony Park: 52.6% at a good address, 50.4% at a typical address

Revenue Capture Score: the most important factor in choosing a location, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address

Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →

Summary
10 Best Neighborhoods
Where Would an Italian Restaurant Make the Most Money?
What Should I Consider?
Where Should I Start?
FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
FAQ: Can an Italian Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
FAQ: Is an Italian Restaurant a Good Tenant?
Landlord Survivability Data
Best Neighborhoods for Any Business

Summary

Mission Bay leads San Francisco's 2026 survivability rankings for Italian Restaurant operators, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address and 75.9% at a typical address. Its highest scored address is at 84.0% and its lowest at 53.4%. The last-ranked neighborhood is Colony Park, at 52.6% at a good address and 50.4% at a typical address. Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data.

What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around San Francisco to Open an Italian Restaurant?

Mission Bay ranks #1 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods in and around San Francisco for Italian Restaurant survivability, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 84.0% at a good address as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:

Rank	Neighborhood	Metro	At a good address	Average (typical address)	Best Locations	Challenging Locations
1	Mission Bay	San Francisco	84.0%	75.9%	84.0%	53.4%
2	Bushrod	San Francisco	83.6%	78.7%	83.6%	66.4%
3	West Berkeley	San Francisco	83.6%	78.2%	84.0%	62.8%
4	Mission	San Francisco	83.6%	77.3%	84.0%	53.8%
5	Central Richmond	San Francisco	83.6%	77.3%	84.0%	51.2%
6	Twin Peaks	San Francisco	83.6%	76.6%	84.0%	62.8%
7	Haight Ashbury	San Francisco	83.6%	74.8%	83.6%	55.6%
8	Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside	San Francisco	83.6%	71.2%	83.6%	48.9%
9	Bayview Hunters Point	San Francisco	83.6%	69.3%	84.0%	50.7%
10	Potrero Hill	San Francisco	83.5%	78.3%	83.6%	65.6%

A low-ranking neighborhood can still contain high-potential storefronts: the address matters most. For the most accurate predictions, always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform.

The ranking runs on the good-address figure (the 90th percentile of the scored addresses in each neighborhood). Average is the typical address; Best and Challenging Locations are the highest and lowest scored address in the neighborhood. Every figure is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, as printed in the linked file. See our full methodology →

Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.

Where in or Around San Francisco Would an Italian Restaurant Make the Most Money?

Where an Italian Restaurant would make the most money in or around San Francisco comes down to the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address.

Mission Bay is ranked #1 for Italian Restaurant survivability, at 84.0% at a good address and 75.9% at a typical address; Colony Park is ranked last of the 107, at 52.6% at a good address and 50.4% at a typical address. Revenue at a specific storefront is what the Revenue Capture Score estimates, so check it for each address you are weighing.

Location is one of the few things about a new business you can measure before it opens. Opening an Italian Restaurant in San Francisco requires careful location choice. Across the 107 ranked neighborhoods, the average projected chance that a new Italian Restaurant lasts two or more years is 66.7% at a typical address. Our models show that the optimal location profile varies dramatically from one business category to the next.

What Should I Consider When Opening an Italian Restaurant in or Around San Francisco?

When selecting a location for an Italian Restaurant in or around San Francisco, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. When evaluating a potential location, Revenue Capture Score should be the first number you look at. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. The analysis behind these rankings spans millions of data points across competition, spending, and mobility. A certain density of competitors signals strong demand and can benefit all businesses. StreetSpring's predictions leverage proprietary datasets covering competition, spending, and mobility. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.

This can be summarized as:

Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Our live tool reflects the latest competitive landscape: these static rankings may already be slightly out of date.

Where in or Around San Francisco Should I Start an Italian Restaurant?

Our data ranks the top-performing neighborhoods as Mission Bay, Bushrod, and West Berkeley, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Colony Park, Thousand Oaks, and Woodside (Concord). Remember that a neighborhood average smooths over wide variation: your exact block could significantly outperform. Market dynamics shift frequently; validate these insights with real-time data from StreetSpring.

Related Articles:

Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
National City Survivability: Italian Restaurant
National Neighborhood Survivability: Italian Restaurant

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in San Francisco to Open an Italian Restaurant?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for an Italian Restaurant in San Francisco is Mission Bay, at 84.0% at a good address and 75.9% at a typical address, followed by Bushrod and West Berkeley. 39 of the 107 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.

For the most accurate predictions, always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform.

Can an Italian Restaurant Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in San Francisco?

Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. For the most current predictions, visit StreetSpring to analyze your specific location in real-time. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.

How Often Are Italian Restaurant Rankings in San Francisco Updated?

StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in San Francisco.

Is an Italian Restaurant a Good Tenant for San Francisco Landlords?

In Mission Bay, the projected chance that a new Italian Restaurant lasts two or more years is 75.9% at a typical address and 84.0% at a good address, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

Landlord Survivability Data for Italian Restaurant in San Francisco

The data tells a clear story for Italian Restaurant tenants across San Francisco's top neighborhoods. Mission Bay leads at 75.9% at a typical address, with its best scored address at 84.0%. Bushrod is at 78.7% at a typical address, and West Berkeley at 78.2% at a typical address. You can see the Survivability Score for your location for any business right now.

Our tool scores any business category at the exact storefront address you enter.

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco for My Business Overall?

You can see the best neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco.

Business Survivability Rankings: San Francisco: See how Italian Restaurant compares to all other business types in San Francisco
Best Cities to Open an Italian Restaurant in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Italian Restaurant
Business Survivability in Mission Bay, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Bushrod, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
Business Survivability in West Berkeley, San Francisco: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood

Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View technical data for San Francisco

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the figures shown here.

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