Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: San Francisco
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in San Francisco for new businesses by survivability score. See which areas give you the best chance of lasting more than two years.
Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- Top-ranked neighborhood: West Berkeley: 84.0% at a good address, 78.0% at a typical address
- Most challenging: Colony Park: 52.3% average survivability
- 107 neighborhoods ranked across the San Francisco metro
- Coverage: This ranking carries one row per business type and neighborhood. Its score is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, averaged across the price points StreetSpring scores separately in the tool (most types have 5). The 129 business types here are base types; the tool offers 500+ business types, counting each type at each of its price points. Your specific business type and address will differ.
- See our full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods to Open a Business
- Hardest Places to Open a Business
- Where Would a Business Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider When Opening?
- Where to Start & How to Find Data
- Advice for Landlords
- Tools for Tenant-Rep Agents
- Why Do Survival Rates Vary?
- What Is a Survivability Score?
- How Does StreetSpring Compare?
- What Each Neighborhood Specializes In
- Related Resources
Summary
StreetSpring's 2026 file ranks West Berkeley first in San Francisco, with the best locations offering a 84.5% chance of lasting more than two years. Across all business types that could open in West Berkeley, the average location shows a 78.0% chance of lasting more than two years. Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data to make sure that there have not been major changes.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in or Around San Francisco to Open a Business?
The top 10 neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open a business are:
| # | Neighborhood | At a good address | Typical address | Best locations | Challenging locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Berkeley | 84.0% | 78.0% | 84.5% | 60.2% |
| 2 | Twin Peaks | 83.8% | 75.5% | 84.4% | 62.7% |
| 3 | Bushrod | 83.4% | 77.7% | 83.9% | 67.5% |
| 4 | Outer Richmond | 83.4% | 75.5% | 84.2% | 58.5% |
| 5 | Bayview | 83.4% | 72.7% | 84.5% | 50.1% |
| 6 | Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside | 83.4% | 70.7% | 84.0% | 49.8% |
| 7 | Bayview Hunters Point | 83.4% | 69.7% | 84.4% | 51.0% |
| 8 | North Berkeley | 83.3% | 76.7% | 84.0% | 64.6% |
| 9 | Mission | 83.3% | 75.7% | 84.5% | 53.5% |
| 10 | Temescal | 83.3% | 75.7% | 84.1% | 58.7% |
See the Survivability Score for your new business
What Are the Hardest Places in or Around San Francisco to Open a Business?
The hardest neighborhoods in or around San Francisco to open a business are:
| # | Neighborhood | At a good address | Typical address | Best locations | Challenging locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | Crystyl Ranch | 61.4% | 57.2% | 64.2% | 51.3% |
| 104 | Sun Terrace | 61.3% | 56.0% | 63.7% | 49.9% |
| 105 | Woodside (Concord) | 57.5% | 54.8% | 69.2% | 50.0% |
| 106 | Thousand Oaks | 57.0% | 54.0% | 67.4% | 49.4% |
| 107 | Colony Park | 55.2% | 52.3% | 56.6% | 49.5% |
The Full San Francisco Neighborhood Ranking
All 107 neighborhoods we rank in or around San Francisco, best to hardest, on the same measure as the tables above: the projected chance a business at a good address in that neighborhood (the mean p90 score of its ranked business types, the file's neighborhood_overall_score) lasts two or more years, averaged across the 129 business types in this ranking.
Show all 107 ranked neighborhoods
| # | Neighborhood | At a good address | Typical address | Best locations | Challenging locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Berkeley | 84.0% | 78.0% | 84.5% | 60.2% |
| 2 | Twin Peaks | 83.8% | 75.5% | 84.4% | 62.7% |
| 3 | Bushrod | 83.4% | 77.7% | 83.9% | 67.5% |
| 4 | Outer Richmond | 83.4% | 75.5% | 84.2% | 58.5% |
| 5 | Bayview | 83.4% | 72.7% | 84.5% | 50.1% |
| 6 | Oceanview/Merced/Ingleside | 83.4% | 70.7% | 84.0% | 49.8% |
| 7 | Bayview Hunters Point | 83.4% | 69.7% | 84.4% | 51.0% |
| 8 | North Berkeley | 83.3% | 76.7% | 84.0% | 64.6% |
| 9 | Mission | 83.3% | 75.7% | 84.5% | 53.5% |
| 10 | Temescal | 83.3% | 75.7% | 84.1% | 58.7% |
| 11 | Sunset/Parkside | 83.3% | 71.8% | 84.5% | 52.1% |
| 12 | Lorin | 83.1% | 79.0% | 83.9% | 68.4% |
| 13 | Northwest Berkeley | 83.1% | 77.2% | 83.5% | 63.9% |
| 14 | Inner Richmond | 83.1% | 76.0% | 83.9% | 58.1% |
| 15 | Central Richmond | 83.1% | 75.9% | 84.1% | 52.5% |
| 16 | Santa Fe | 83.1% | 71.8% | 83.9% | 52.0% |
| 17 | Bernal Heights | 83.0% | 76.2% | 84.1% | 58.5% |
| 18 | Mission Bay | 83.0% | 73.8% | 83.6% | 54.3% |
| 19 | Potrero Hill | 82.9% | 76.7% | 83.8% | 62.6% |
| 20 | Castro/Upper Market | 82.9% | 74.1% | 84.4% | 51.4% |
| 21 | Central Berkeley | 82.7% | 79.2% | 83.6% | 71.3% |
| 22 | Jackson Triangle | 82.7% | 68.5% | 84.1% | 52.0% |
| 23 | Inner Sunset | 82.6% | 72.0% | 83.6% | 50.0% |
| 24 | South Berkeley | 82.5% | 72.4% | 83.9% | 58.6% |
| 25 | Haight Ashbury | 82.3% | 73.3% | 83.4% | 55.4% |
| 26 | Parkside | 82.3% | 71.4% | 84.2% | 55.2% |
| 27 | Longfellow | 82.1% | 77.4% | 82.8% | 57.7% |
| 28 | Treasure Island | 82.1% | 72.2% | 83.8% | 53.9% |
| 29 | Clawson | 81.9% | 73.6% | 83.8% | 59.4% |
| 30 | Mission-Foothill | 81.8% | 70.4% | 83.8% | 53.3% |
| 31 | Lone Mountain/USF | 81.7% | 70.8% | 82.8% | 55.1% |
| 32 | Westbrae | 81.7% | 66.1% | 83.4% | 50.6% |
| 33 | Lincoln Park | 81.6% | 74.9% | 82.4% | 53.7% |
| 34 | Rockridge | 81.6% | 72.7% | 82.9% | 55.5% |
| 35 | Santa Clara | 81.5% | 65.6% | 83.0% | 49.9% |
| 36 | Hayes Valley | 81.4% | 69.9% | 82.6% | 54.0% |
| 37 | West of Twin Peaks | 81.3% | 65.8% | 83.6% | 48.8% |
| 38 | Portola | 81.2% | 68.7% | 83.8% | 53.0% |
| 39 | South of Market | 81.2% | 68.3% | 83.9% | 49.8% |
| 40 | Ingleside | 81.1% | 66.8% | 82.2% | 50.7% |
| 41 | Excelsior | 80.9% | 69.5% | 84.2% | 49.9% |
| 42 | Piedmont Avenue | 80.7% | 73.9% | 82.3% | 57.7% |
| 43 | Cleveland Heights | 80.6% | 72.2% | 83.3% | 58.1% |
| 44 | Outer Mission | 80.6% | 71.1% | 82.8% | 53.4% |
| 45 | Forest Knolls | 80.6% | 70.3% | 82.9% | 53.7% |
| 46 | Lakeshore | 80.5% | 69.7% | 84.6% | 51.4% |
| 47 | Elmwood | 80.3% | 74.3% | 81.6% | 57.1% |
| 48 | Stonestown | 80.3% | 69.4% | 83.1% | 52.9% |
| 49 | Burbank | 80.2% | 70.3% | 84.1% | 54.3% |
| 50 | Presidio | 79.9% | 67.3% | 83.8% | 49.2% |
| 51 | East Peralta | 79.4% | 72.4% | 81.7% | 58.8% |
| 52 | Marina | 79.4% | 69.0% | 82.4% | 49.7% |
| 53 | Glen Park | 79.4% | 68.9% | 81.9% | 54.3% |
| 54 | Hayward Highland | 78.9% | 66.5% | 82.3% | 49.9% |
| 55 | Southgate | 78.9% | 65.9% | 83.1% | 51.1% |
| 56 | Cow Hollow | 78.8% | 69.0% | 80.6% | 53.7% |
| 57 | Berkeley Marina | 78.7% | 69.5% | 80.5% | 50.3% |
| 58 | Mt Diablo | 78.6% | 66.6% | 79.5% | 50.4% |
| 59 | Visitacion Valley | 78.3% | 65.9% | 81.8% | 50.1% |
| 60 | Northbrae | 78.2% | 68.2% | 81.4% | 53.6% |
| 61 | South Beach | 78.2% | 66.4% | 79.7% | 50.0% |
| 62 | Cambridge Park | 78.2% | 64.1% | 80.1% | 50.8% |
| 63 | Northgate | 77.7% | 62.8% | 83.6% | 49.8% |
| 64 | Mission-Garin | 77.5% | 63.5% | 83.7% | 49.3% |
| 65 | Meadow Homes | 77.3% | 69.6% | 82.2% | 60.1% |
| 66 | South Kennedy Tract | 77.2% | 64.2% | 79.2% | 49.5% |
| 67 | Maxwell Park | 77.1% | 62.9% | 80.9% | 53.7% |
| 68 | Longwood-Winton Grove | 77.0% | 61.6% | 81.1% | 51.2% |
| 69 | Claremont | 76.9% | 69.0% | 80.5% | 53.9% |
| 70 | North Hayward | 76.7% | 64.2% | 78.2% | 53.9% |
| 71 | Canterbury Village | 76.1% | 60.9% | 82.0% | 49.9% |
| 72 | Upper B Street | 75.9% | 64.2% | 81.9% | 49.8% |
| 73 | Western Addition | 75.6% | 65.0% | 83.1% | 49.8% |
| 74 | Diamond Heights | 75.6% | 63.4% | 82.6% | 51.2% |
| 75 | Financial District | 75.5% | 66.8% | 77.1% | 51.3% |
| 76 | Miraloma Park | 75.4% | 66.3% | 83.5% | 55.6% |
| 77 | Noe Valley | 75.1% | 63.7% | 78.6% | 50.3% |
| 78 | Nob Hill | 75.0% | 64.9% | 78.4% | 52.5% |
| 79 | Russian Hill | 75.0% | 63.7% | 77.4% | 50.1% |
| 80 | Monte Gardens | 75.0% | 61.5% | 78.2% | 51.5% |
| 81 | Mt Eden | 74.8% | 63.8% | 83.6% | 51.0% |
| 82 | Harder-Tennyson | 74.6% | 61.8% | 83.4% | 50.5% |
| 83 | Presidio Heights | 74.4% | 67.5% | 77.2% | 56.1% |
| 84 | Glen Eden | 73.2% | 56.6% | 78.3% | 49.0% |
| 85 | Berkeley Hills | 72.9% | 63.3% | 78.1% | 51.2% |
| 86 | Clayton Valley | 72.9% | 60.1% | 76.8% | 50.6% |
| 87 | Pacific Heights | 72.8% | 61.7% | 78.7% | 49.2% |
| 88 | Financial District/South Beach | 72.7% | 62.9% | 76.8% | 50.1% |
| 89 | Fairway Park | 72.7% | 55.9% | 79.1% | 48.9% |
| 90 | Tenderloin | 72.2% | 62.4% | 75.2% | 51.8% |
| 91 | Clayton (Concord) | 71.5% | 58.0% | 74.6% | 49.6% |
| 92 | Pine Hollow | 69.6% | 63.2% | 72.0% | 55.9% |
| 93 | Whitman-Mocine | 69.6% | 59.4% | 82.2% | 51.3% |
| 94 | Crocker Amazon | 69.2% | 63.9% | 72.9% | 56.1% |
| 95 | Dana Estates | 68.8% | 58.3% | 76.6% | 49.7% |
| 96 | Ayers | 68.4% | 60.2% | 75.0% | 50.2% |
| 97 | Tennyson-Alquire | 68.1% | 56.7% | 82.7% | 49.0% |
| 98 | South Hampton | 67.3% | 60.4% | 74.4% | 50.1% |
| 99 | Silverwood | 65.7% | 60.4% | 82.7% | 53.1% |
| 100 | East Concord | 65.1% | 57.1% | 82.8% | 49.4% |
| 101 | Clayton Valley Highlands | 64.0% | 54.4% | 66.5% | 49.2% |
| 102 | Turtle Creek | 62.4% | 58.0% | 68.9% | 51.9% |
| 103 | Crystyl Ranch | 61.4% | 57.2% | 64.2% | 51.3% |
| 104 | Sun Terrace | 61.3% | 56.0% | 63.7% | 49.9% |
| 105 | Woodside (Concord) | 57.5% | 54.8% | 69.2% | 50.0% |
| 106 | Thousand Oaks | 57.0% | 54.0% | 67.4% | 49.4% |
| 107 | Colony Park | 55.2% | 52.3% | 56.6% | 49.5% |
Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data to make sure that there have not been major changes. However, market conditions change daily, and it's best to use StreetSpring's live data to check the survivability score for a specific address.
Where in or Around San Francisco Would a Business Make the Most Money?
StreetSpring's precision goes beyond the neighborhood: it scores survivability at the exact address for every major brick-and-mortar business category. In West Berkeley, the top-ranked neighborhood in or around San Francisco, a new business at a good address has about an 84.0% chance of lasting two or more years. In Colony Park, the last-ranked, the same figure is 55.2%. StreetSpring publishes no revenue figure for a neighborhood. The Revenue Capture Score, StreetSpring's estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the most important factor in choosing where to open, and the live tool scores it address by address.
Location is the part of the decision this projection measures, and inside one city it moves the projected chance a long way. Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis for San Francisco, you can check the most up-to-date forecasts with StreetSpring, starting with a free 10-minute trial, to select the location that puts you in the best position to succeed.
See the Survivability Score for your new business
What Should I Consider When Opening a Business in or Around San Francisco?
When selecting a location it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. Consider how differently two businesses perform at the same address: a Laundromat will have a different forecasted spend than a Steakhouse, a Dessert Shop, a Tattoo & Piercing Shop, and others: and every one of those business types would produce a distinct forecast at the exact same storefront. StreetSpring's models are trained on 570,000+ real business outcomes.
The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: it is StreetSpring's estimate of the revenue a business can capture at that address. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors across varying distances and service levels, along with mobility patterns. We have been studying the businesses serving more than 180 million+ Americans. The right amount of competition creates a destination effect, where multiple similar businesses collectively attract more foot traffic than any one would alone (this is why car dealerships often cluster together). However, when primary competition is dense and high quality, the marginal revenue available to a new entrant drops significantly. StreetSpring's spending projections are business-type-specific and address-specific: built from a proprietary model trained on hundreds of thousands of real business outcomes across the country.
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
Across every business type StreetSpring ranks, the 3 neighborhoods in and around San Francisco with the highest overall rank are:
- West Berkeley
- Twin Peaks
- Bushrod
Some other important factors to consider:
Ownership Rates: High homeownership near a business location signals a stable, rooted customer base: residents who stay in the area and build habits around local businesses. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around San Francisco with the highest ownership rates are: Miraloma Park, Rockridge, and Lakeshore.
Employment Rates: For businesses such as restaurants that rely more on disposable incomes, Survivability Scores are boosted when a large share of nearby consumers are employed. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around San Francisco with the highest employment rates are: Diamond Heights, Miraloma Park, and Treasure Island.
Housing Occupancy: The Census counts how many housing units in each neighborhood stand vacant; StreetSpring's model reads that figure alongside competition, consumer spending and other neighborhood characteristics. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around San Francisco with the highest housing occupancy rates are: Outer Richmond, Bushrod, and Treasure Island.
See the Survivability Score for your new business
Where Should I Start, and How Do I Find the Right Data for San Francisco?
According to StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, West Berkeley, Twin Peaks, and Bushrod are the strongest starting points in or around San Francisco, but the best neighborhood for your specific business type may differ from these overall rankings.
- Best businesses by neighborhood: A full breakdown of the top business types to open in each San Francisco neighborhood (including survivability scores by type) is at San Francisco Business Survivability Rankings.
- Best neighborhoods for your business type: If you already know your category, that same guide lets you filter by business type to see which neighborhoods score highest for your specific concept.
- Address-level scores: StreetSpring's live tool shows a survivability score for any business type at any exact address in or around San Francisco: updated regularly.
Get your address-level survivability score →
However, market conditions change daily, and it's best to use StreetSpring's live data to check the survivability score for a specific address.
What Should Landlords in or Around San Francisco Know When Evaluating Tenant Success?
What's true for a neighborhood isn't necessarily true for your specific building. Landlords can use survivability data to match tenants to addresses where their business type is projected to last.
See how landlords can use these forecasts to improve occupancy and NOI: Landlord Representatives Guide
Try StreetSpring to see the Survivability Score for 500+ business types at your storefront's address.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations in San Francisco?
Site selection has historically been as much art as science: StreetSpring replaces the guesswork with a direct survivability probability for every address, but StreetSpring highlights which addresses offer the best odds for long-term success across every business subtype in and around San Francisco. For a breakdown of the AI tools agents use to select the strongest sites, see: AI Tools for Tenant Reps
Why Do Business Survival Rates Vary So Much Between Neighborhoods in San Francisco?
A single new competitor opening nearby can shift an address survivability score by several points: hyperlocal dynamics are the most volatile factor in the model. The factors that make one address stronger than another (visibility, accessibility, competitive distance, spending power) combine differently at every site. Our research explains why U.S. business survival rates haven't risen in decades, and how location drives outcomes more than concept: Why Survival Rates Aren't Increasing
What Is a Survivability Score and How Does StreetSpring Calculate It?
A Survivability Score is a data-driven probability: the likelihood that a specific business type will survive its first two years at a specific address. StreetSpring calculates this from 100+ factors including competitive density, forecasted spend, and mobility patterns. Learn more → StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
How Does StreetSpring Compare to Other Site-Selection Tools?
Unlike traditional site-selection platforms, StreetSpring forecasts future business performance rather than describing present conditions, giving you a prediction, not just a snapshot. See how StreetSpring compares →
What Each Neighborhood Specializes In
The strongest neighborhood overall is not the best for every business, and the last-ranked one still has business types that do well there. Here are the top five for three points on the San Francisco list, at a good address in each:
West Berkeley: ranked #1 of 107 in San Francisco, the strongest neighborhood overall
- Veterinary Clinic (90.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Eye Care Center (89.6% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Acupuncture Clinic (89.6% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Dermatology Clinic (89.6% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Mental Health Clinic (89.6% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
Hayward Highland: ranked #54 of 107, the middle of the San Francisco list
- Veterinary Clinic (88.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Chiropractor Office (87.4% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Eye Care Center (87.4% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Physical Therapy Clinic (87.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Acupuncture Clinic (87.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
Colony Park: ranked #107 of 107, the last in the San Francisco list
- Laundromat (83.1% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Chiropractor Office (76.8% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Spa (71.8% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Veterinary Clinic (71.3% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Cafe (68.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
Use the overall ranking to find candidate neighborhoods, then check the business type you plan to open.
Related Resources
Rankings based on historical averages shift as new competitors open or close: StreetSpring's live platform always reflects the most current survivability for any given address. See the full rankings and get a live survivability score for any address in San Francisco.
- San Francisco Business Survivability Rankings: overall rankings by business type across all San Francisco neighborhoods
- Business Survivability in West Berkeley
- Business Survivability in Twin Peaks
- Business Survivability in Bushrod
- StreetSpring Methodology
Every Neighborhood We Rank in San Francisco
Survivability rankings for each San Francisco neighborhood we score, one page per neighborhood, with the business-type detail behind each one.
- Bayview
- Excelsior
- Lakeshore
- Marina
- Mission
- Northgate
- Parkside
- Portola
- Potrero Hill
- Stonestown
- Tenderloin
Cities and Towns We Rank in the San Francisco Metro
Whole municipalities in the San Francisco metro, ranked separately from the neighborhoods above, one page per place.
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for San Francisco are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for San Francisco
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.