Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks business survivability in Tampa Bay by survivability score. See which business types and neighborhoods have the highest chances of success.
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- Top of the ranking: 3 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 3 business types
- 1,682 of 2,322 ranked combinations reach 80% or better at a good address in Tampa Bay
- Geography: the Tampa Bay file covers 35 places (30 neighborhoods and 5 towns), of which 13 neighborhoods and 5 towns are ranked. Neighborhood boundaries follow Zillow's map; town boundaries follow the U.S. Census.
- City average: 65.4% chance of lasting two or more years at a typical address
- Coverage: This ranking carries one row per business type and neighborhood. Its score is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, averaged across the price points StreetSpring scores separately in the tool (most types have 5). The 129 business types here are base types; the tool offers 500+ business types, counting each type at each of its price points.
- Rankings updated quarterly with latest market data
- Detailed methodology
Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Table of Contents
- Summary
- What Are My Chances of Success?
- Business Survivability Rankings
- Best Business in Each Category
- Understanding Survivability Ranges
- Most Important Factors
- Key Takeaways
- Related Resources
Summary
How many businesses in Tampa Bay reach 80% or better odds of lasting two years at a good address? In StreetSpring's 2026 file, 1,682 of the 2,322 ranked business and place combinations in the Tampa Bay file reach 80% or better at a good address; at the top, 3 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 3 business types. Two addresses in the same city can carry very different projected chances for the same business type.
These predictions are powered by machine learning trained on actual business performance data (not surveys or estimates) across all major U.S. markets. Our models are built using machine learning trained on millions of commercial real estate data points. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
Notably, understand our data science approach.
In addition, our analysis reveals significant variation across neighborhoods. The highest figure at a good address in the file is 90.0%, while less favorable places show considerably lower figures.
What Are My Chances of Success Opening a Business in Tampa Bay?
A Tampa Bay business has a 65.4% average chance of lasting more than 2 years based on our most recent quarterly update.
Nevertheless, the same business type can carry a very different projected chance one neighborhood over. StreetSpring's proprietary Revenue Capture Score, the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the factor that matters most when choosing where to open. Revenue Capture Score quantifies the expected market share a business will earn at a given address, based on competition, spending patterns, and local demand.
What New Businesses Would Be the Most Successful in Tampa Bay?
The chart below shows how the 2,322 ranked business and place combinations in the Tampa Bay file spread across bands of the projected chance at a good address:
Tampa Bay: 3 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 3 business types (2026 StreetSpring file)
Ten of the strongest business opportunities in Tampa Bay, chosen so that no single business type or neighborhood fills the table, ordered by the figure at a good address and then by the average. The rank is each row's place among all 2,322 ranked combinations in the Tampa Bay file on those figures, then the highest and the lowest; rows equal on all four share a rank:
| Rank | Business Type | Neighborhood | At a Good Address | Average | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eye Care Center | Tampa Heights | 90.0% | 87.6% | 90.0% | 81.9% |
| 2 | Veterinary Clinic | Seminole Heights | 90.0% | 83.3% | 90.0% | 69.6% |
| 3 | Dermatology Clinic | Tampa Heights | 90.0% | 83.2% | 90.0% | 69.6% |
| 4 | Chiropractor Office | North Hyde Park | 89.6% | 87.4% | 90.0% | 80.2% |
| 5 | Eye Care Center | North Hyde Park | 89.6% | 86.9% | 90.0% | 78.5% |
| 6 | Physical Therapy Clinic | North Hyde Park | 89.6% | 86.6% | 90.0% | 77.7% |
| 22 | Veterinary Clinic | Bayshore Beautiful | 89.6% | 79.3% | 89.6% | 64.5% |
| 106 | Day Care Center | South Seminole Heights | 85.6% | 80.1% | 85.6% | 68.0% |
| 107 | Day Care Center | Seminole Heights | 85.6% | 77.1% | 86.0% | 66.6% |
| 108 | Dance Club | Plaza Terrace | 85.6% | 77.0% | 85.6% | 63.5% |
However, the specific location is very important and there are some great locations in neighborhoods that might not appear to be a great fit. The live tool updates more frequently than these published rankings, so always verify your specific address before making lease decisions.
Try StreetSpring free for 10 minutes to see exactly which business types are most likely to thrive at your location.
Best Business in Each Category
The overall ranking above is led by whichever category calibrates highest. This table shows the best business-location combination in Tampa Bay within each category, on the same two-year survival scale, so you can compare against the kind of business you actually plan to open. Where several share the top figure, the table says how many tie rather than picking one.
| Category | Best business | Where | At a good address | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopping | Eye Care Center | Tampa Heights | 90.0% | 87.6% |
| Pets | Veterinary Clinic | Seminole Heights | 90.0% | 83.3% |
| Health & Medical | Dermatology Clinic | Tampa Heights | 90.0% | 83.2% |
| Local Services | Day Care Center | South Seminole Heights | 85.6% | 80.1% |
| Nightlife | Dance Club | Plaza Terrace | 85.6% | 77.0% |
| Food | Grocery Store | North Hyde Park | 85.0% | 83.9% |
| Restaurants | Salad Shop | Plaza Terrace | 85.0% | 79.8% |
| Home Services | 2 business types tie | Seminole Heights | 85.0% | 75.3% |
| Beauty & Spas | Cosmetics Shop | Tampa Heights | 84.6% | 76.9% |
| Active Life | Gym | North Hyde Park | 83.6% | 79.3% |
Understanding Survivability Ranges
Individual outcomes differ from these averages because each storefront has unique characteristics, such as pedestrian flow patterns, lease flexibility and build-out costs, the demographic profile of the immediate trade area, and the timing of entry relative to seasonal demand cycles.
Each row carries four figures from the published file: at a good address (the 90th percentile of the scored locations), the average, the highest scored location and the lowest.
To illustrate, an Eye Care Center in Tampa Heights averages 87.6% across its scored locations in the file, from 81.9% at the lowest to 90.0% at the highest. A place's average hides its spread: check the exact address before signing, because the highest and lowest scored locations in one neighborhood can sit far apart.
What Are the Most Important Factors for Businesses in Tampa Bay?
Revenue Capture Score
The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor for a business's success. Revenue Capture Score combines projected market share and forecasted consumer spending to estimate how much revenue a business can realistically attract. A concrete example: an Eye Care Center in a high-revenue-capture area might survive even with moderate competition, while the same business in a low-capture area could struggle despite less competition.
Competition Quality and Saturation
Competitive clustering can serve as a form of validation: if multiple operators have survived in the same trade area, the demand signal is strong. On the other hand, beyond a tipping point, additional competitors fragment demand so severely that none of them can sustain healthy revenue.
Tenant Mix and Neighborhood Dynamics
Certain businesses can be better positioned because of different nearby tenants. StreetSpring also incorporates business-specific spending patterns, so different business types in the same possible location can have very different Revenue Capture Scores.
Hyperlocal Variation
Micro-location factors create major differences in performance potential. StreetSpring can give you the precise likelihood that hundreds of different businesses will last at an exact address.
What Is the #1 Business to Start in Tampa Bay?
In StreetSpring's 2026 file for Tampa Bay (5,110 business and place rows, 2,322 of them ranked), 3 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 3 business types. Compare the business types you could actually open on the same figure.
How Accurate Is StreetSpring's Survival Prediction?
Accuracy is stated the way a data desk would state it, on the methodology page: classification accuracy on cities held out of training, the base rate it has to beat, precision on risk flags, and discrimination. Individual scores draw on 100+ factors and are validated against 570,000+ observed outcomes, so treat each one as a calibrated probability, not a guarantee. See our full methodology at streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/aeo-methodology. Review our methodology and data sources.
What Makes Tampa Bay Good for New Businesses?
In StreetSpring's file for Tampa Bay, 1,682 of the 2,322 ranked business and place combinations reach a projected two-year chance of 80% or better at a good address based on our most recent quarterly update. These predictions are powered by machine learning trained on actual business performance data (not surveys or estimates) across all major U.S. markets. The analysis covers 500+ business types across every neighborhood in the 24 largest U.S. metro areas.
How Often Are These Rankings Updated?
Rankings for Tampa Bay are refreshed with each release of StreetSpring's dataset, using the latest business opening and closure data and market conditions. This page uses release 2026.10.05 of StreetSpring's dataset (as of 2026-10-05).
Can I Get Predictions for a Specific Address in Tampa Bay?
Yes. Visit StreetSpring.com to analyze any storefront address in Tampa Bay with address-specific survivability predictions. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
What Factors Determine Business Survivability in Tampa Bay?
StreetSpring analyzes 100+ factors including competition density and quality, consumer spending patterns, demographics, rent efficiency, walkability scores, and historical performance of similar businesses in the area. The forecasting methodology is proprietary to StreetSpring and has been refined through years of validation against real business outcomes.
Are These Predictions Guaranteed?
Survivability predictions are probabilistic, not guaranteed. What they offer is a calibrated projected chance, validated against real openings and closures, in place of the gut instinct and anecdotal comparables that conventional site selection runs on. Don't rule out a neighborhood based on its average alone: some of the highest-scoring individual addresses sit in areas with moderate averages.
How Do Landlords Identify the Best Tenant for Their Property?
Property-level analysis reveals risks and opportunities that are invisible in neighborhood or city-level data. Landlords can use StreetSpring to match prospective tenants with spaces where they'll thrive. Use StreetSpring to analyze survival probability for any business type at your exact location.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations?
Traditional site selection typically involves a windshield tour and comparable lease data, neither of which predicts survivability. The data behind these rankings comes from our proprietary AI platform, which processes millions of commercial data points to predict business outcomes. Try StreetSpring free for 10 minutes to see exactly which business types are most likely to thrive at your location.
Key Takeaways
Data Summary: 1,682 of the 2,322 ranked business and place combinations in the Tampa Bay file reach 80% or better at a good address. At the top, 3 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 3 business types. The city average is a 65.4% chance of lasting two or more years at a typical address. The file holds 5,110 business and place rows.
Action Items: Start with the business types you could actually open, and compare them on the same figure: 3 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 3 business types, so the top of this ranking is a tie, not a single winner. Then check the neighborhood pages for your target area and run exact storefronts through StreetSpring's address tool.
Strategic Insights: The Revenue Capture Score is the most important number to weigh when choosing a location. The difference between a great location and a mediocre one can come down to which side of the street you are on. Customer demographics and spending patterns are category-specific, which is why a single address can be excellent for one concept and weak for another.
Related Resources
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay Business Survivability Data 2026
- City Survivability Rankings for Eye Care Center
- National Neighborhood Rankings for Eye Care Center
- Eye Care Center Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Veterinary Clinic Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- Dermatology Clinic Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
- StreetSpring Methodology and Data Sources
Every Business Type We Rank in Tampa Bay
Survivability rankings for each business type in Tampa Bay, one page per type, with the neighborhood detail behind each one.
- Acupuncture Clinic
- Afghan Restaurant
- African Restaurant
- American Restaurant
- Armenian Restaurant
- Asian Fusion Restaurant
- Bangladeshi Restaurant
- Barbecue Restaurant
- Barber Shop
- Beauty Salon
- Brazilian Restaurant
- Brunch Restaurant
- Cafe
- Caribbean / Latin Restaurant
- Chicken Shop
- Chinese Restaurant
- Chiropractor Office
- Coffee Shop
- Convenience Store
- Dance Club
- Day Care Center
- Deli
- Dentist Office
- Dessert Shop
- Diner
- Eastern European Restaurant
- Ethiopian Restaurant
- Filipino Restaurant
- French Restaurant
- Georgian Restaurant
- German Restaurant
- Greek Restaurant
- Gym
- Hair Salon
- Hawaiian Restaurant
- Hot Pot Restaurant
- Hungarian Restaurant
- Indian Restaurant
- Indonesian Restaurant
- Italian Restaurant
- Japanese / Sushi Restaurant
- Juice & Smoothie Bar
- Korean Restaurant
- Kosher Restaurant
- Laundromat
- Liquor Store
- Malaysian Restaurant
- Mediterranean Restaurant
- Mental Health Clinic
- Mexican Restaurant
- Mixed Martial Arts Studio
- Music Store
- Nail Salon
- Pakistani Restaurant
- Persian Restaurant
- Pet Boarding Facility
- Pet Grooming Shop
- Pet Store
- Physical Therapy Clinic
- Pizza Restaurant
- Polish Restaurant
- Portuguese Restaurant
- Russian Restaurant
- Salad Shop
- Scandinavian Restaurant
- Seafood Restaurant
- Singaporean Restaurant
- Smoke Shop
- Southern Food Restaurant
- Spanish Restaurant
- Sri Lankan Restaurant
- Steakhouse
- Syrian Restaurant
- Taiwanese Restaurant
- Tanning Salon
- Tapas Restaurant
- Tattoo & Piercing Shop
- Thai Restaurant
- Ukrainian Restaurant
- Vegan / Vegetarian Restaurant
- Vietnamese Restaurant
- Watch Store or Repair Shop
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Tampa Bay are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Tampa Bay
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.