What is the average survivability for Cafe across Tampa Bay's ranked neighborhoods?

Across the 13 ranked neighborhoods in Tampa Bay, the average projected chance that a Cafe lasts two or more years is 76.1% at a typical address. Tampa Heights, ranked #1, is at 79.8% at a typical address.

What are the worst neighborhoods for Cafe in Tampa Bay?

The most challenging neighborhoods in Tampa Bay for Cafe include Riverbend (ranked last, at 81.3% at a good address and 78.3% at a typical address), Old Seminole Heights, and Oakford Park. Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data.

What should I consider when opening a Cafe in Tampa Bay?

StreetSpring's proprietary Revenue Capture Score, the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the factor that matters most when choosing where to open. StreetSpring computes Revenue Capture Score by projecting the business's market share based on competitor quality and quantity, mobility patterns, and forecasted consumer spending for the specific business type.

How accurate are StreetSpring's Cafe survivability predictions?

StreetSpring publishes its accuracy on the methodology page, stated with its base rate: how often the model tells an open business from a closed one on cities held out of training, its precision on risk flags, and its discrimination. Each score draws on 100+ factors and is reported as the projected chance of lasting two or more years, never as a guarantee. StreetSpring delivers address-level predictions, showing how likely hundreds of different businesses are to last at that exact spot.

Survivability Rankings for Cafe in Tampa Bay

Q: What is the best neighborhood in Tampa Bay to open a Cafe?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the best neighborhood in Tampa Bay to open a Cafe is Tampa Heights, ranked #1 at 83.6% at a good address and 79.8% at a typical address (3 ranked neighborhoods share the 83.6% good-address figure). 13 of the 13 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.

Q: Where in Tampa Bay would a Cafe make the most money?

It depends on the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address. Check it in the live tool for each Tampa Bay address you are weighing.

StreetSpring's 2026 ranking of Tampa Bay neighborhoods to open a Cafe, at a good address, from Tampa Heights (83.6% survival) to Riverbend (81.3%).

September 22, 2026•14 min read

By Robert Koons | Last reviewed: October 2026 | Methodology

Quick Summary

Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address

#1 Neighborhood: Tampa Heights: 83.6% at a good address, 79.8% at a typical address for Cafe (3 ranked neighborhoods share the 83.6% good-address figure)

Neighborhoods at or above 70% at a typical address: 13 of 13 ranked

Average across the 13 ranked neighborhoods (typical address): 76.1% for Cafes

Most challenging area: Riverbend: 81.3% at a good address, 78.3% at a typical address

Revenue Capture Score: the most important factor in choosing a location, StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address

Data freshness: 2026 data · Full methodology →

Summary
10 Best Neighborhoods
Where Would a Cafe Make the Most Money?
What Should I Consider?
Where Should I Start?
FAQ: Best Neighborhoods
FAQ: Can a Cafe Succeed in Lower-Ranked Areas?
FAQ: How Often Are Rankings Updated?
FAQ: Is a Cafe a Good Tenant?
Landlord Survivability Data
Best Neighborhoods for Any Business

Summary

Opening a Cafe in Tampa Bay? Our 2026 analysis identifies Tampa Heights as the top location, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 83.6% at a good address and 79.8% at a typical address (3 ranked neighborhoods share the 83.6% good-address figure). Its highest scored address is at 83.6% and its lowest at 66.0%. The last-ranked neighborhood is Riverbend, at 81.3% at a good address and 78.3% at a typical address. These rankings are based on the latest available data; check StreetSpring for real-time updates.

What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in and Around Tampa Bay to Open a Cafe?

Tampa Heights ranks #1 of the 13 ranked neighborhoods in and around Tampa Bay for Cafe survivability, with a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 83.6% at a good address as of 2026. The top 10 neighborhoods are:

Rank	Neighborhood	Metro	At a good address	Average (typical address)	Best Locations	Challenging Locations
1	Tampa Heights	Tampa Bay	83.6%	79.8%	83.6%	66.0%
2	Seminole Heights	Tampa Bay	83.6%	75.8%	84.0%	56.1%
3	Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor	Tampa Bay	83.6%	75.4%	84.0%	60.2%
4	North Hyde Park	Tampa Bay	83.1%	79.2%	83.6%	70.0%
5	Plaza Terrace	Tampa Bay	83.1%	77.8%	83.6%	67.8%
6	South Seminole Heights	Tampa Bay	83.1%	77.2%	83.6%	63.3%
7	Bayshore Beautiful	Tampa Bay	83.1%	75.7%	83.6%	55.2%
8	North Tampa	Tampa Bay	82.6%	75.4%	83.1%	55.2%
9	Terrace Park	Tampa Bay	82.6%	73.0%	83.6%	54.8%
10	Bayside West	Tampa Bay	82.6%	70.2%	84.0%	56.1%

For the most current predictions, visit StreetSpring to analyze your specific location in real-time. StreetSpring refreshes survivability data continuously: check the tool for the most current score at any address.

The ranking runs on the good-address figure (the 90th percentile of the scored addresses in each neighborhood). Average is the typical address; Best and Challenging Locations are the highest and lowest scored address in the neighborhood. Every figure is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, as printed in the linked file. See our full methodology →

Try StreetSpring to see if this location is still the best and see if there are locations to rent in this area right now.

Where in or Around Tampa Bay Would a Cafe Make the Most Money?

Where a Cafe would make the most money in or around Tampa Bay comes down to the exact address. The Revenue Capture Score is the most important factor in choosing a location: StreetSpring's proprietary estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address.

Tampa Heights is ranked #1 for Cafe survivability, at 83.6% at a good address and 79.8% at a typical address; Riverbend is ranked last of the 13, at 81.3% at a good address and 78.3% at a typical address. Revenue at a specific storefront is what the Revenue Capture Score estimates, so check it for each address you are weighing.

Where you sign the lease is a choice you can check against the published scores before you commit. Opening a Cafe in Tampa Bay requires careful location choice. Across the 13 ranked neighborhoods, the average projected chance that a new Cafe lasts two or more years is 76.1% at a typical address. Different business types will have different forecasted spend than others, and all of those would have different projections for each location.

What Should I Consider When Opening a Cafe in or Around Tampa Bay?

When selecting a location for a Cafe in or around Tampa Bay, it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. StreetSpring's proprietary Revenue Capture Score, the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the factor that matters most when choosing where to open. StreetSpring computes this by projecting the business's market share, which is based on the quality and quantity of primary, secondary, and tertiary competitors. Our platform incorporates data from thousands of neighborhoods nationwide. Clustering works when it draws more customers to the area than any single business could alone. Our proprietary models incorporate data sources not available through any public platform. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.

This can be summarized as:

Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Our live tool reflects the latest competitive landscape: these static rankings may already be slightly out of date.

Where in or Around Tampa Bay Should I Start a Cafe?

The highest-performing areas for this business type are Tampa Heights, Seminole Heights, and Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor, while the most challenging neighborhoods would be Riverbend, Old Seminole Heights, and Oakford Park. However, individual locations vary widely, and even in lower-scoring neighborhoods there are pockets that perform exceptionally well. StreetSpring refreshes survivability data continuously: check the tool for the most current score at any address.

Related Articles:

Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay
National City Survivability: Cafe
National Neighborhood Survivability: Cafe

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in Tampa Bay to Open a Cafe?

Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, the top neighborhood for a Cafe in Tampa Bay is Tampa Heights, at 83.6% at a good address and 79.8% at a typical address (3 ranked neighborhoods share the 83.6% good-address figure), followed by Seminole Heights and Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor. 13 of the 13 ranked neighborhoods are at or above 70% at a typical address.

For the most accurate predictions, always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform.

Can a Cafe Succeed in Lower-Ranked Neighborhoods in Tampa Bay?

Yes, neighborhood averages mask significant block-by-block variation. Even in neighborhoods ranked outside the top 10, individual storefronts with strong foot traffic, low direct competition, and favorable lease terms can outperform the area average. StreetSpring's Survivability Scores are updated regularly, so the most accurate prediction for your exact storefront is always available in the live tool. Always check your specific address in StreetSpring's live platform for the most accurate prediction.

How Often Are Cafe Rankings in Tampa Bay Updated?

StreetSpring recalculates survivability scores regularly using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data. Rankings are updated quarterly; the live tool always reflects the most current predictions for any address in Tampa Bay.

Is a Cafe a Good Tenant for Tampa Bay Landlords?

In Tampa Heights, the projected chance that a new Cafe lasts two or more years is 79.8% at a typical address and 83.6% at a good address, depending on the exact storefront. Check the current Survivability Score for any address instantly.

Landlord Survivability Data for Cafe in Tampa Bay

Tenant longevity is a top concern for commercial landlords. In Tampa Heights, the top-ranked neighborhood in Tampa Bay, a Cafe tenant has a projected chance of lasting two or more years of 79.8% at a typical address. Seminole Heights follows at 75.8% at a typical address, while Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor shows 75.4% at a typical address. Our tool shows the survivability outlook for any business type at your exact address, updated regularly.

StreetSpring scores the exact storefront address, not only the neighborhood around it.

What Are the Best Neighborhoods in or Around Tampa Bay for My Business Overall?

You can see the best neighborhoods in or around Tampa Bay to open any type of business in our article Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay.

Business Survivability Rankings: Tampa Bay: See how Cafe compares to all other business types in Tampa Bay
Best Cities to Open a Cafe in the US: National city-level survivability rankings for Cafe
Business Survivability in Tampa Heights, Tampa Bay: All business types ranked in the #1 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Seminole Heights, Tampa Bay: All business types ranked in the #2 neighborhood
Business Survivability in Fair Oaks-Manhattan Manor, Tampa Bay: All business types ranked in the #3 neighborhood

Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Tampa Bay are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View technical data for Tampa Bay

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the figures shown here.

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