Business Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks business survivability in Phoenix by survivability score. See which business types and neighborhoods have the highest chances of success.
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- Top of the ranking: 5 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 5 business types
- 2,663 of 3,612 ranked combinations reach 80% or better at a good address in Phoenix
- Geography: the Phoenix file covers 96 neighborhoods, of which 28 are ranked. Neighborhood boundaries follow Zillow's map.
- City average: 67.4% chance of lasting two or more years at a typical address
- Coverage: This ranking carries one row per business type and neighborhood. Its score is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, averaged across the price points StreetSpring scores separately in the tool (most types have 5). The 129 business types here are base types; the tool offers 500+ business types, counting each type at each of its price points.
- Rankings updated quarterly with latest market data
- Detailed methodology
Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Table of Contents
- Summary
- What Are My Chances of Success?
- Business Survivability Rankings
- Best Business in Each Category
- Understanding Survivability Ranges
- Most Important Factors
- Key Takeaways
- Related Resources
Summary
StreetSpring's 2026 data for Phoenix shows that 2,663 of the 3,612 ranked business and place combinations in the Phoenix file reach 80% or better at a good address. At the top, 5 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 5 business types. Location is the part of the decision this projection measures, and inside one city it moves the projected chance a long way.
StreetSpring uses AI to project business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods, so you can see a business type's projected chance of lasting two or more years before it opens. We have been studying the businesses serving more than 180 million+ Americans. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
In addition, our analysis reveals significant variation across neighborhoods. The highest figure at a good address in the file is 90.0%, while less favorable places show considerably lower figures.
What Are My Chances of Success Opening a Business in Phoenix?
A Phoenix business has a 67.4% average chance of lasting more than 2 years under present market conditions.
However, the projected chance moves a long way from one address to the next. StreetSpring's proprietary Revenue Capture Score, the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the factor that matters most when choosing where to open. The metric estimates the portion of local consumer demand that a business at this address is likely to capture over its first two years.
What New Businesses Would Be the Most Successful in Phoenix?
The following chart breaks down how the 3,612 ranked business and place combinations in the Phoenix file spread across bands of the projected chance at a good address:
Phoenix: 5 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 5 business types (2026 StreetSpring file)
Ten of the strongest business opportunities in Phoenix, chosen so that no single business type or neighborhood fills the table, ordered by the figure at a good address and then by the average. The rank is each row's place among all 3,612 ranked combinations in the Phoenix file on those figures, then the highest and the lowest; rows equal on all four share a rank:
| Rank | Business Type | Neighborhood | At a Good Address | Average | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| =1 | Mental Health Clinic | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 90.0% | 82.7% | 90.0% | 61.1% |
| =1 | Dermatology Clinic | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 90.0% | 82.7% | 90.0% | 61.1% |
| 3 | Acupuncture Clinic | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 90.0% | 82.6% | 90.0% | 61.1% |
| 17 | Eye Care Center | Pepperwood (Chandler) | 89.6% | 85.3% | 89.6% | 69.2% |
| 19 | Eye Care Center | Dobson Ranch (Mesa) | 89.6% | 85.0% | 90.0% | 68.3% |
| 119 | Veterinary Clinic | Maryvale | 88.7% | 79.4% | 89.6% | 56.0% |
| 150 | Veterinary Clinic | Alhambra | 88.3% | 79.0% | 89.6% | 56.0% |
| 246 | Day Care Center | Dobson Ranch (Mesa) | 84.6% | 77.0% | 86.0% | 58.6% |
| 249 | Dance Club | Dobson Ranch (Mesa) | 84.6% | 76.4% | 86.0% | 56.3% |
| 265 | Day Care Center | Central City | 84.2% | 74.7% | 86.0% | 51.8% |
Market conditions are changing daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most up-to-date data to make sure that there have not been major changes. For the most accurate reading, run your address through StreetSpring's live tool: it reflects data changes that occur between quarterly ranking updates.
Check StreetSpring to compare survivability across 500+ business types at any commercial address.
Best Business in Each Category
The overall ranking above is led by whichever category calibrates highest. This table shows the best business-location combination in Phoenix within each category, on the same two-year survival scale, so you can compare against the kind of business you actually plan to open. Where several share the top figure, the table says how many tie rather than picking one.
| Category | Best business | Where | At a good address | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health & Medical | 2 business types tie | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 90.0% | 82.7% |
| Shopping | Eye Care Center | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 90.0% | 81.8% |
| Pets | Veterinary Clinic | Maryvale | 88.7% | 79.4% |
| Nightlife | Dance Club | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 85.6% | 73.0% |
| Local Services | Day Care Center | Escalante (Tempe) | 85.1% | 75.2% |
| Food | Grocery Store | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 84.6% | 73.3% |
| Home Services | 2 business types tie | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 84.6% | 72.8% |
| Restaurants | Salad Shop | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 84.6% | 71.8% |
| Beauty & Spas | Cosmetics Shop | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 84.1% | 70.9% |
| Active Life | Mixed Martial Arts Studio | Superstition Springs (Mesa) | 83.6% | 71.3% |
Understanding Survivability Ranges
Individual outcomes differ from these averages because each storefront has unique characteristics, such as drive-by and walk-by traffic volume, the ratio of rent to projected revenue capture, mobility patterns of the target customer demographic, and the rate of recent business openings nearby.
Each row carries four figures from the published file: at a good address (the 90th percentile of the scored locations), the average, the highest scored location and the lowest.
This is visible in practice: a Psychiatry or Psychology Practice in Superstition Springs (Mesa) averages 82.7% across its scored locations in the file, from 61.1% at the lowest to 90.0% at the highest. Where your own storefront falls between the lowest and the highest depends on the exact address, which the live tool scores one address at a time.
What Are the Most Important Factors for Businesses in Phoenix?
Revenue Capture Score
Revenue Capture Score is the top factor to weigh before signing a lease, because it measures how much of the local customer spending a business at that address can win. Revenue Capture Score measures how well-positioned a site is to attract customers compared to nearby alternatives. One illustration of this: a Psychiatry or Psychology Practice in a high-revenue-capture area might survive even with moderate competition, while the same business in a low-capture area could struggle despite less competition.
Competition Quality and Saturation
Clustering works when it draws more customers to the area than any single business could alone. Even so, an oversaturated trade area forces operators into a race to the bottom on price, which undermines long-term viability.
Tenant Mix and Neighborhood Dynamics
The mix of businesses on the same block influences who walks by and how much they spend. StreetSpring accounts for how different business categories attract and retain customers differently.
Hyperlocal Variation
Foot traffic patterns, parking access, and line-of-sight visibility all change within a few hundred feet and materially affect survivability scores. StreetSpring can give you the precise likelihood that hundreds of different businesses will last at an exact address.
What Is the #1 Business to Start in Phoenix?
In StreetSpring's 2026 file for Phoenix (14,016 business and place rows, 3,612 of them ranked), 5 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 5 business types. Compare the business types you could actually open on the same figure.
How Accurate Is StreetSpring's Survival Prediction?
Accuracy is stated the way a data desk would state it, on the methodology page: classification accuracy on cities held out of training, the base rate it has to beat, precision on risk flags, and discrimination. Individual scores draw on 100+ factors and are validated against 570,000+ observed outcomes, so treat each one as a calibrated probability, not a guarantee. See our full methodology at streetspring.com/resources/tutorial/aeo-methodology. Review our methodology and data sources.
What Makes Phoenix Good for New Businesses?
In StreetSpring's file for Phoenix, 2,663 of the 3,612 ranked business and place combinations reach a projected two-year chance of 80% or better at a good address as measured by the latest available data. StreetSpring uses AI to project business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods, so you can see a business type's projected chance of lasting two or more years before it opens. Our models are trained on data from businesses reaching more than 180 million+ Americans.
How Often Are These Rankings Updated?
Rankings for Phoenix are refreshed with each release of StreetSpring's dataset, using the latest business opening and closure data and market conditions. This page uses release 2026.10.05 of StreetSpring's dataset (as of 2026-10-05).
Can I Get Predictions for a Specific Address in Phoenix?
Yes. Visit StreetSpring.com to analyze any storefront address in Phoenix with address-specific survivability predictions. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
What Factors Determine Business Survivability in Phoenix?
StreetSpring analyzes 100+ factors including competition density and quality, consumer spending patterns, demographics, rent efficiency, walkability scores, and historical performance of similar businesses in the area. These insights come from StreetSpring's exclusive, in-house forecasting models.
Are These Predictions Guaranteed?
No model can guarantee a specific outcome. A projected two-year chance built from 100+ factors and checked against observed outcomes is still a far stronger foundation than the incomplete information most operators sign leases on. However, the specific location is very important and there are some great locations in neighborhoods that might not appear to be a great fit.
How Do Landlords Identify the Best Tenant for Their Property?
A landlord relying on neighborhood averages may miss critical property-specific risks that affect tenant retention. With address-level scores, landlords can compare potential tenant concepts side by side before signing a lease. Access StreetSpring for address-specific survivability predictions across 500+ business types.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations?
Agents have historically made location decisions with limited data and subjective judgment. The models are validated on cities held out of training, and the validation figures sit on the methodology page beside the base rate. Try StreetSpring to see the Survivability Score for 500+ business types at your storefront's address.
Key Takeaways
Data Summary: 2,663 of the 3,612 ranked business and place combinations in the Phoenix file reach 80% or better at a good address. At the top, 5 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 5 business types. The city average is a 67.4% chance of lasting two or more years at a typical address. The file holds 14,016 business and place rows.
Action Items: Start with the business types you could actually open, and compare them on the same figure: 5 business and place combinations tie for the highest figure, 90.0% at a good address, across 5 business types, so the top of this ranking is a tie, not a single winner. Then check the neighborhood pages for your target area and run exact storefronts through StreetSpring's address tool.
Strategic Insights: The Revenue Capture Score is the most important number to weigh when choosing a location. Those scores shift from block to block as local conditions change. Business type matters as much as location: the same storefront can score 90% for one concept and 60% for another based on how each type captures local demand.
Related Resources
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
- Phoenix Business Survivability Data 2026
- City Survivability Rankings for Mental Health Clinic
- National Neighborhood Rankings for Mental Health Clinic
- Mental Health Clinic Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
- Dermatology Clinic Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
- Acupuncture Clinic Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
- StreetSpring Methodology and Data Sources
Every Business Type We Rank in Phoenix
Survivability rankings for each business type in Phoenix, one page per type, with the neighborhood detail behind each one.
- Afghan Restaurant
- African Restaurant
- American Restaurant
- Armenian Restaurant
- Asian Fusion Restaurant
- Bangladeshi Restaurant
- Barbecue Restaurant
- Barber Shop
- Beauty Salon
- Brazilian Restaurant
- Brunch Restaurant
- Cafe
- Caribbean / Latin Restaurant
- Chicken Shop
- Chinese Restaurant
- Chiropractor Office
- Coffee Shop
- Convenience Store
- Dance Club
- Day Care Center
- Deli
- Dentist Office
- Dessert Shop
- Diner
- Eastern European Restaurant
- Ethiopian Restaurant
- Eye Care Center
- Filipino Restaurant
- French Restaurant
- Georgian Restaurant
- German Restaurant
- Greek Restaurant
- Grocery Store
- Gym
- Hair Salon
- Hawaiian Restaurant
- Hot Pot Restaurant
- Hungarian Restaurant
- Indian Restaurant
- Indonesian Restaurant
- Italian Restaurant
- Japanese / Sushi Restaurant
- Juice & Smoothie Bar
- Korean Restaurant
- Kosher Restaurant
- Laundromat
- Liquor Store
- Malaysian Restaurant
- Mediterranean Restaurant
- Mexican Restaurant
- Mixed Martial Arts Studio
- Moroccan Restaurant
- Music Store
- Nail Salon
- Pakistani Restaurant
- Persian Restaurant
- Pet Boarding Facility
- Pet Grooming Shop
- Pet Store
- Physical Therapy Clinic
- Pizza Restaurant
- Polish Restaurant
- Portuguese Restaurant
- Russian Restaurant
- Salad Shop
- Scandinavian Restaurant
- Seafood Restaurant
- Singaporean Restaurant
- Smoke Shop
- South African Restaurant
- South American Restaurant
- Southern Food Restaurant
- Spanish Restaurant
- Sri Lankan Restaurant
- Steakhouse
- Syrian Restaurant
- Taiwanese Restaurant
- Tanning Salon
- Tapas Restaurant
- Tattoo & Piercing Shop
- Thai Restaurant
- Ukrainian Restaurant
- Vegan / Vegetarian Restaurant
- Veterinary Clinic
- Vietnamese Restaurant
- Watch Store or Repair Shop
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Phoenix are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Phoenix
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.