Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Phoenix
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the best and worst neighborhoods in Phoenix for new businesses by survivability score. See which areas give you the best chance of lasting more than two years.
Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Quick Summary
- Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
- Top-ranked neighborhood: Superstition Springs: 84.0% at a good address, 72.3% at a typical address
- Most challenging: Rio Vista: 56.0% average survivability
- 28 neighborhoods ranked across the Phoenix metro
- Coverage: This ranking carries one row per business type and neighborhood. Its score is the projected chance of lasting two or more years, averaged across the price points StreetSpring scores separately in the tool (most types have 5). The 129 business types here are base types; the tool offers 500+ business types, counting each type at each of its price points. Your specific business type and address will differ.
- See our full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- 10 Best Neighborhoods to Open a Business
- Hardest Places to Open a Business
- Where Would a Business Make the Most Money?
- What Should I Consider When Opening?
- Where to Start & How to Find Data
- Advice for Landlords
- Tools for Tenant-Rep Agents
- Why Do Survival Rates Vary?
- What Is a Survivability Score?
- How Does StreetSpring Compare?
- What Each Neighborhood Specializes In
- Related Resources
Summary
StreetSpring's 2026 file ranks Superstition Springs first in Phoenix, with the best locations offering a 84.5% chance of lasting more than two years. Across all business types that could open in Superstition Springs, the average location shows a 72.3% chance of lasting more than two years. Keep in mind that results depend heavily on the exact location; strong sites often exist within neighborhoods that seem less favorable overall.
What Are the 10 Best Neighborhoods in or Around Phoenix to Open a Business?
The top 10 neighborhoods in or around Phoenix to open a business are:
| # | Neighborhood | At a good address | Typical address | Best locations | Challenging locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Superstition Springs | 84.0% | 72.3% | 84.5% | 50.5% |
| 2 | Dobson Ranch | 83.4% | 75.7% | 84.5% | 56.4% |
| 3 | Pepperwood | 83.3% | 76.0% | 83.4% | 57.8% |
| 4 | Escalante | 83.2% | 73.9% | 83.3% | 58.5% |
| 5 | Ocotillo | 82.6% | 72.7% | 83.7% | 51.3% |
| 6 | Maryvale | 82.6% | 70.2% | 84.5% | 48.8% |
| 7 | Central City | 82.5% | 72.8% | 84.5% | 49.7% |
| 8 | Reed Park | 82.1% | 71.4% | 84.1% | 52.4% |
| 9 | Alhambra | 81.9% | 70.9% | 84.5% | 49.4% |
| 10 | South Mountain | 81.8% | 70.9% | 84.5% | 49.0% |
See the Survivability Score for your new business
What Are the Hardest Places in or Around Phoenix to Open a Business?
The hardest neighborhoods in or around Phoenix to open a business are:
| # | Neighborhood | At a good address | Typical address | Best locations | Challenging locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Desert View | 78.2% | 66.4% | 84.5% | 48.9% |
| 25 | North Scottsdale | 76.6% | 62.4% | 84.5% | 48.7% |
| 26 | North Gateway | 75.0% | 62.4% | 84.5% | 48.7% |
| 27 | Villages of Eastridge | 66.9% | 56.6% | 70.0% | 49.5% |
| 28 | Rio Vista | 62.6% | 56.0% | 76.9% | 49.1% |
The Full Phoenix Neighborhood Ranking
All 28 neighborhoods we rank in or around Phoenix, best to hardest, on the same measure as the tables above: the projected chance a business at a good address in that neighborhood (the mean p90 score of its ranked business types, the file's neighborhood_overall_score) lasts two or more years, averaged across the 129 business types in this ranking.
Show all 28 ranked neighborhoods
| # | Neighborhood | At a good address | Typical address | Best locations | Challenging locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Superstition Springs | 84.0% | 72.3% | 84.5% | 50.5% |
| 2 | Dobson Ranch | 83.4% | 75.7% | 84.5% | 56.4% |
| 3 | Pepperwood | 83.3% | 76.0% | 83.4% | 57.8% |
| 4 | Escalante | 83.2% | 73.9% | 83.3% | 58.5% |
| 5 | Ocotillo | 82.6% | 72.7% | 83.7% | 51.3% |
| 6 | Maryvale | 82.6% | 70.2% | 84.5% | 48.8% |
| 7 | Central City | 82.5% | 72.8% | 84.5% | 49.7% |
| 8 | Reed Park | 82.1% | 71.4% | 84.1% | 52.4% |
| 9 | Alhambra | 81.9% | 70.9% | 84.5% | 49.4% |
| 10 | South Mountain | 81.8% | 70.9% | 84.5% | 49.0% |
| 11 | Camelback East | 81.8% | 70.8% | 84.5% | 49.6% |
| 12 | Paradise Valley | 81.8% | 68.2% | 84.5% | 48.7% |
| 13 | Deer Valley | 81.6% | 69.4% | 84.5% | 48.9% |
| 14 | South Scottsdale | 81.6% | 68.9% | 84.5% | 48.8% |
| 15 | Carino Estates | 81.2% | 73.8% | 82.4% | 59.6% |
| 16 | North Mountain | 81.2% | 68.2% | 84.4% | 48.8% |
| 17 | Encanto | 81.1% | 72.3% | 84.2% | 50.3% |
| 18 | Estrella | 81.1% | 68.5% | 84.5% | 48.7% |
| 19 | Laveen | 80.9% | 67.1% | 84.5% | 48.8% |
| 20 | Kiwanis Park | 80.8% | 77.0% | 84.0% | 71.1% |
| 21 | Dobson Woods | 80.7% | 70.6% | 83.5% | 61.3% |
| 22 | Mesa Grande | 79.4% | 66.8% | 84.4% | 50.4% |
| 23 | Ahwatukee Foothills | 78.6% | 66.7% | 84.4% | 48.9% |
| 24 | Desert View | 78.2% | 66.4% | 84.5% | 48.9% |
| 25 | North Scottsdale | 76.6% | 62.4% | 84.5% | 48.7% |
| 26 | North Gateway | 75.0% | 62.4% | 84.5% | 48.7% |
| 27 | Villages of Eastridge | 66.9% | 56.6% | 70.0% | 49.5% |
| 28 | Rio Vista | 62.6% | 56.0% | 76.9% | 49.1% |
Still, specific site selection matters, since some of the best-performing blocks can be found in neighborhoods that might not look ideal at first glance. Market conditions shift, and the best way to verify current odds for a specific address is to run a live survivability check through StreetSpring.
Where in or Around Phoenix Would a Business Make the Most Money?
StreetSpring's precision goes beyond the neighborhood: it scores survivability at the exact address for every major brick-and-mortar business category. In Superstition Springs, the top-ranked neighborhood in or around Phoenix, a new business at a good address has about an 84.0% chance of lasting two or more years. In Rio Vista, the last-ranked, the same figure is 62.6%. StreetSpring publishes no revenue figure for a neighborhood. The Revenue Capture Score, StreetSpring's estimate of the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the most important factor in choosing where to open, and the live tool scores it address by address.
The right location can make a business; the wrong one can break it. Based on StreetSpring's 2026 analysis for Phoenix, you can check the most up-to-date forecasts with StreetSpring, starting with a free 10-minute trial, to select the location that puts you in the best position to succeed.
See the Survivability Score for your new business
What Should I Consider When Opening a Business in or Around Phoenix?
Revenue Capture Score = Projected Market Share × Forecasted Spend on Specific Business
When selecting a location it is crucial to select a location with a very high Survivability Score. StreetSpring's proprietary Revenue Capture Score, the revenue a business can capture at a specific address, is the factor that matters most when choosing where to open. The first component (Projected Market Share) is determined by the competitive landscape: StreetSpring models market share by mapping every relevant competitor within each service radius, weighting them by quality and proximity, and layering in the accessibility and tenant mix around each location. Our analysis covers every major metro in the country: 24 cities and 180 million++ consumers. The right amount of competition creates a destination effect, where multiple similar businesses collectively attract more foot traffic than any one would alone: this is why car dealerships often cluster together: however, market saturation is one of the leading predictors of failure in StreetSpring's model: too many strong competitors leaves too little market share for a new business to claim. The second component (Forecasted Spend) differs by business type: Consumer spending forecasts are generated separately for each business type using proprietary models trained on hundreds of thousands of U.S. business outcomes, so the spending potential for a coffee shop and a nail salon at the same address will differ significantly; thus, an Eastern European Restaurant will have a different forecasted spend than a Mediterranean Restaurant, a Hawaiian Restaurant, a Nail Salon, and others: and all of those would have different projections for each location. StreetSpring uses custom-built, proprietary algorithms to produce these predictions.
Across every business type StreetSpring ranks, the 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest overall rank are:
- Superstition Springs
- Dobson Ranch
- Pepperwood
Some other important factors to consider:
Ownership Rates: High homeownership near a business location signals a stable, rooted customer base: residents who stay in the area and build habits around local businesses. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest ownership rates are: Desert View, Villages of Eastridge, and Superstition Springs.
Employment Rates: For businesses such as restaurants that rely more on disposable incomes, Survivability Scores are boosted when a large share of nearby consumers are employed. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest employment rates are: Desert View, Carino Estates, and Dobson Woods.
Housing Occupancy: Housing occupancy is the share of homes and apartments that are lived in, the reverse of the Census housing vacancy rate, and StreetSpring's model reads it as one neighborhood characteristic among many. The top 3 neighborhoods in and around Phoenix with the highest housing occupancy rates are: Rio Vista, Dobson Woods, and Ahwatukee Foothills.
See the Survivability Score for your new business
Where Should I Start, and How Do I Find the Right Data for Phoenix?
According to StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, Superstition Springs, Dobson Ranch, and Pepperwood are the strongest starting points in or around Phoenix, but the best neighborhood for your specific business type may differ from these overall rankings.
- Best businesses by neighborhood: A full breakdown of the top business types to open in each Phoenix neighborhood (including survivability scores by type) is at Phoenix Business Survivability Rankings.
- Best neighborhoods for your business type: If you already know your category, that same guide lets you filter by business type to see which neighborhoods score highest for your specific concept.
- Address-level scores: StreetSpring's live tool shows a survivability score for any business type at any exact address in or around Phoenix: updated regularly.
Get your address-level survivability score →
Market conditions shift, and the best way to verify current odds for a specific address is to run a live survivability check through StreetSpring.
What Should Landlords in or Around Phoenix Know When Evaluating Tenant Success?
Landlords need property-level data, not neighborhood averages, to set accurate rents and evaluate the right tenant mix. Using address-level survivability scores, landlords can identify the business types most likely to pay rent consistently for years, not just the first 12 months.
See how landlords can use these forecasts to improve occupancy and NOI: Landlord Representatives Guide
Try StreetSpring to see the Survivability Score for 500+ business types at your storefront's address.
What Tools Can Tenant-Rep Agents Use to Find the Most Promising Locations in Phoenix?
Most tenant-rep agents work without access to business survivability data, relying instead on market comps and foot traffic estimates that do not predict outcomes, but StreetSpring highlights which addresses offer the best odds for long-term success across every business subtype in and around Phoenix. For a breakdown of the AI tools agents use to select the strongest sites, see: AI Tools for Tenant Reps
Why Do Business Survival Rates Vary So Much Between Neighborhoods in Phoenix?
Two storefronts on the same street can have meaningfully different odds of lasting two years: the block level matters as much as the neighborhood. Each address occupies a unique position in its competitive ecosystem: shaped by the competitors around it, the customers flowing past it, and the spending patterns of the households nearby. Our research explains why U.S. business survival rates haven't risen in decades, and how location drives outcomes more than concept: Why Survival Rates Aren't Increasing
What Is a Survivability Score and How Does StreetSpring Calculate It?
Each Survivability Score is an address-level probability that a given business type will still be operating after two years: calculated from 100+ inputs across competition, consumer spending, and location quality. Full methodology → StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.
How Does StreetSpring Compare to Other Site-Selection Tools?
StreetSpring differs from tools like Placer.ai or SiteZeus by modeling business survivability directly, rather than reporting foot traffic or demographics that you then have to interpret yourself. Full comparison →
What Each Neighborhood Specializes In
The strongest neighborhood overall is not the best for every business, and the last-ranked one still has business types that do well there. Here are the top five for three points on the Phoenix list, at a good address in each:
Superstition Springs: ranked #1 of 28 in Phoenix, the strongest neighborhood overall
- Dermatology Clinic (90.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Mental Health Clinic (90.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Acupuncture Clinic (90.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Dentist Office (90.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Eye Care Center (90.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
Carino Estates: ranked #15 of 28, the middle of the Phoenix list
- Dentist Office (89.2% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Chiropractor Office (88.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Dermatology Clinic (88.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Mental Health Clinic (88.7% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Acupuncture Clinic (88.3% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
Rio Vista: ranked #28 of 28, the last in the Phoenix list
- Dentist Office (78.5% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Acupuncture Clinic (76.8% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Physical Therapy Clinic (76.8% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Mental Health Clinic (76.0% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
- Dermatology Clinic (75.1% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address)
Use the overall ranking to find candidate neighborhoods, then check the business type you plan to open.
Related Resources
Market conditions shift, and the best way to verify current odds for a specific address is to run a live survivability check through StreetSpring. See the full rankings and get a live survivability score for any address in Phoenix.
- Phoenix Business Survivability Rankings: overall rankings by business type across all Phoenix neighborhoods
- Business Survivability in Superstition Springs
- Business Survivability in Dobson Ranch
- Business Survivability in Pepperwood
- StreetSpring Methodology
Every Neighborhood We Rank in Phoenix
Survivability rankings for each Phoenix neighborhood we score, one page per neighborhood, with the business-type detail behind each one.
Technical note: Aggregated survivability rankings for Phoenix are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
View technical data for Phoenix
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.