City Survivability Rankings for Italian Restaurant

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Italian Restaurants across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for an Italian Restaurant to succeed.

•16 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-ranked city for Italian Restaurant is Charlotte: 83.1% at a good address, 73.3% at a typical address
  • Dallas is left out of this ranking while a gap in its input data is repaired, and San Antonio is left out because it has too few scored locations to rank fairly
  • 7 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Italian Restaurant survivability at a typical address
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 76.3%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Italian Restaurant: 67.4%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Charlotte ranks as the #1 city for opening an Italian Restaurant in the United States, with an 83.1% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are Atlanta with 83.1%, and Denver with 83.1%. The 22-city analysis shows Italian Restaurants performing at a 67.4% national average, with strong geographic concentration of top scores in a handful of metros. Market conditions change daily and it is best to use StreetSpring's most current data to ensure there have not been major shifts. These rankings reflect data through early 2026: check StreetSpring for the latest figures before any location decision.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Italian Restaurants city survivability range chart: Charlotte vs New York City (2026)

Best-to-worst Italian Restaurant survivability within individual metros: Charlotte, Atlanta, Detroit, Boston and New York City. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 22 Cities Ranked for Italian Restaurants

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Italian Restaurants:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years at a good address
1CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC83.1%
2AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA83.1%
3DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO83.1%
4OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL82.7%
5HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX82.7%
6SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA82.7%
7ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN82.7%
8MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI81.8%
9St. LouisSt. Louis, MO-IL81.8%
10Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV81.3%
11Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA81.3%
12DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI80.4%
13BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD80.4%
14MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL80.4%
15PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD80.0%
16San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA80.0%
17PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ80.0%
18San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA80.0%
19PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA79.5%
20Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL79.0%
21BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH78.2%
22New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ76.3%

1. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

  • At a good address: 83.1%
  • At a typical address: 73.3%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

2. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

3. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

4. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

5. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

6. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

7. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

  • At a good address: 82.7%
  • At a typical address: 65.6%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

8. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

9. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL

10. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

11. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

12. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

13. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

  • At a good address: 80.4%
  • At a typical address: 67.0%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

14. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

15. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

16. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

17. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

18. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

19. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

20. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

21. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

  • At a good address: 78.2%
  • At a typical address: 63.9%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

22. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Key Insights

Moderate variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Charlotte at 83.1%) and the #22 city (New York City at 76.3%) is 6.80 percentage points. For Italian Restaurants, Charlotte leads Atlanta by less than a point. Either metro works. The specific site decides the outcome.

National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for an Italian Restaurant is 67.4%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Italian Restaurants:

  • Strong survivability signals: Charlotte leads with a 73% average chance of lasting two or more years for Italian Restaurants: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Italian Restaurants, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Neighborhood diversity: Within each top city, high-survivability zones appear across multiple neighborhood types, from dense urban cores to established suburban strips.
  • Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.

This analysis leverages machine learning trained on hundreds of thousands of business lifecycle events to produce reliable survivability forecasts. We apply advanced machine learning to massive commercial real estate datasets to build accurate models. StreetSpring uses its own proprietary forecasting tools to make these predictions.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Italian Restaurants, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can an Italian Restaurant succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Italian Restaurants in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Italian Restaurants in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for an Italian Restaurant?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Italian Restaurants across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Italian Restaurants, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that an Italian Restaurant lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Italian Restaurants?

Charlotte ranks as the #1 city in the US for Italian Restaurants survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 73% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Charlotte, an Italian Restaurant has approximately a 73% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Atlanta ranks second, followed by Denver. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Charlotte, Atlanta, Denver, Orlando, Houston, Seattle, Chicago, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Washington DC, Los Angeles, Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego, Phoenix, San Francisco, Portland, Tampa Bay, Boston, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.