City Survivability Rankings for Bar
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bars across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bar to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Bar is Tampa Bay — 83% average survivability
- 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Bar survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Dallas at 77%
- National average survivability score for Bar: 80.5%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bars
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bar succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bar?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bars?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Tampa Bay ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bar in the United States, with an average 83% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Portland with 83%, and Phoenix with 83%. StreetSpring's 24-city analysis places the national average for Bars at 80.5%, a baseline that Tampa Bay comfortably exceeds. Our data shows that strong individual locations exist in every city we analyze, regardless of the city's overall ranking. These rankings reflect data through early 2026 — check StreetSpring for the latest figures before any location decision.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Bar city survivability rankings — Tampa Bay leads among 24 US metros at 83% in 2026
All 24 Cities Ranked for Bars
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bars:
1. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 89.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 78.8% – 84.6%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 72.7%
2. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 88.7% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 78.4% – 84.4%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 71.7%
3. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 88.6% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 78.5% – 84.1%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 72.5%
4. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 88.4% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 78.3% – 83.8%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 72.5%
5. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 88.3% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 79.0% – 83.7%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 74.5%
6. St Louis
- Best locations: 87.8% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 78.0% – 83.6%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 72.1%
7. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 88.2% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 77.3% – 83.5%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 70.7%
8. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 87.7% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 77.1% – 82.7%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 71.6%
9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 87.6% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 77.2% – 82.6%
- Challenging locations: 51.0% – 71.8%
10. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 87.1% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 77.0% – 82.4%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 71.4%
11. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 87.1% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 76.5% – 82.3%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 70.5%
12. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 88.0% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.4% – 82.5%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 70.2%
13. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 87.5% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.8% – 82.4%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 68.7%
14. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 87.5% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 76.1% – 82.4%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 69.5%
15. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 87.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.6% – 82.2%
- Challenging locations: 50.0% – 71.1%
16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 87.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.3% – 82.2%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 70.5%
17. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 86.7% – 95.0%
- Average locations: 75.9% – 81.7%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 70.0%
18. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 87.0% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.7% – 81.6%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 69.8%
19. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 87.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 75.7% – 81.7%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 69.8%
20. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 86.8% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.1% – 81.4%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 68.8%
21. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 86.8% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.5% – 81.3%
- Challenging locations: 47.0% – 69.6%
22. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 87.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 76.0% – 81.4%
- Challenging locations: 52.0% – 71.1%
23. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 86.5% – 96.0%
- Average locations: 75.1% – 80.7%
- Challenging locations: 49.0% – 69.8%
24. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 83.6% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 73.9% – 78.5%
- Challenging locations: 54.0% – 69.9%
Key Insights
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Tampa Bay at 82.9%) and the #24 city (Dallas at 76.6%) is 6.2 percentage points. The 0.1 percentage-point spread at the top signals that Bars performance is highly sensitive to city-level factors — competition density and local spending both play significant roles.
Strong performers: 16 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Bars.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bar is 80.5%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bars:
- Strong survivability signals: Tampa Bay leads with a 83% average survivability score for Bars — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bars, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
- Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.
The predictions here are powered by AI models validated against actual business outcomes nationwide. Our models are trained on data from businesses reaching more than 180 million+ Americans. Our proprietary models incorporate data sources not available through any public platform.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
National guides:
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Bars, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Bar succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bars in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bars in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bar?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bars across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Bars, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Bar will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Bars?
Tampa Bay ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bars survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 83%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Tampa Bay, a Bar has approximately a 83% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Portland ranks second, followed by Phoenix. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: April 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Tampa Bay, Portland, Phoenix, San Antonio, Miami, St Louis, Detroit, Orlando, Baltimore, San Diego, Charlotte, New York City, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Houston, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Washington DC, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Denver, Seattle, Dallas.