City Survivability Rankings for Cafe

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Cafes across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Cafe to succeed.

•16 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-ranked city for Cafe is Chicago: 83.5% at a good address, 75.1% at a typical address
  • Dallas is left out of this ranking while a gap in its input data is repaired, and San Antonio is left out because it has too few scored locations to rank fairly
  • 15 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Cafe survivability at a typical address
  • The lowest-ranked city is St. Louis at 80.4%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Cafe: 71.2%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Chicago ranks as the #1 city for opening a Cafe in the United States, with an 83.5% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are Philadelphia with 83.5%, and Washington DC with 83.5%. The 22-city analysis shows Cafes performing at a 71.2% national average, with strong geographic concentration of top scores in a handful of metros. Remember that a city's average score smooths over wide variation: your exact neighborhood could significantly outperform the city average. Pair these survivability scores with StreetSpring's live tool to get a real-time view before making a final decision.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Cafes city survivability range chart: Chicago vs St. Louis (2026)

Best-to-worst Cafe survivability within individual metros: Chicago, Philadelphia, San Diego, Phoenix and St. Louis. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 22 Cities Ranked for Cafes

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Cafes:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years at a good address
1ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN83.5%
2PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD83.5%
3Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV83.5%
4Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA83.5%
5San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA83.5%
6New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ83.5%
7BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH83.5%
8DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI83.1%
9MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL83.1%
10SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA83.1%
11DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO82.7%
12San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA82.7%
13PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA82.7%
14HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX82.2%
15CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC82.2%
16OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL82.2%
17AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA82.2%
18MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI82.2%
19BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD82.2%
20Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL82.2%
21PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ81.8%
22St. LouisSt. Louis, MO-IL80.4%

1. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

2. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

3. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

4. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

5. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

6. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

7. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

8. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

9. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

10. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

11. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

12. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

13. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

14. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

15. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

16. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

17. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

  • At a good address: 82.2%
  • At a typical address: 72.6%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.9%

18. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

19. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

  • At a good address: 82.2%
  • At a typical address: 69.4%
  • Best scored location: 84.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 48.0%

20. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

21. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

22. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL

Key Insights

Cities cluster tightly: The difference between the #1 city (Chicago at 83.5%) and the #22 city (St. Louis at 80.4%) is 3.10 percentage points. Cafes score at effectively the same level across the top two metros. Picking the right city is not the lever here.

National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Cafe is 71.2%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Cafes:

  • Strong survivability signals: Chicago leads with a 75% average chance of lasting two or more years for Cafes: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Cafes, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Low market saturation: Top cities for Cafes have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.
  • Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.

The data behind these rankings comes from our proprietary AI models, trained on millions of real-world business outcomes across the U.S. StreetSpring measures competition through a 30-factor framework. StreetSpring uses its own proprietary forecasting tools to make these predictions.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Cafes, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Cafe succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Cafes in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Cafes in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Cafe?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Cafes across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Cafes, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that a Cafe lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Cafes?

Chicago ranks as the #1 city in the US for Cafes survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 75% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Chicago, a Cafe has approximately a 75% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Philadelphia ranks second, followed by Washington DC. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City, Boston, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, Denver, San Diego, Portland, Houston, Charlotte, Orlando, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Phoenix, St. Louis. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.