City Survivability Rankings for Cafe
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Cafes across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Cafe to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Cafe is Portland — 89% average survivability
- 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Cafe survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 84%
- National average survivability score for Cafe: 86.6%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Cafes
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Cafe succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Cafe?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Cafes?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening a Cafe in the United States, with an average 89% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are San Antonio with 89%, and St Louis with 88%. The 24-city analysis shows Cafes performing at a 86.6% national average, with strong geographic concentration of top scores in a handful of metros. Our data shows that strong individual locations exist in every city we analyze, regardless of the city's overall ranking. Pair these survivability scores with StreetSpring's live tool to get a real-time view before making a final decision.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Cafe city survivability rankings — Portland leads among 24 US metros at 89% in 2026
All 24 Cities Ranked for Cafes
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Cafes:
1. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 92.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 85.2% – 89.8%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.8%
2. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 92.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 85.0% – 89.6%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.7%
3. St Louis
- Best locations: 92.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.8% – 89.4%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.5%
4. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 91.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.9% – 88.8%
- Challenging locations: 56.0% – 78.2%
5. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 91.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.9% – 88.7%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 78.4%
6. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 91.6% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.7% – 88.4%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 78.5%
7. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 91.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.5% – 88.3%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 78.1%
8. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 91.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.7% – 88.2%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 78.6%
9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.8% – 88.1%
- Challenging locations: 61.0% – 79.1%
10. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.6% – 88.1%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 78.8%
11. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.4% – 88.0%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 78.2%
12. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 91.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.2% – 87.8%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 78.2%
13. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 91.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.7%
- Challenging locations: 55.0% – 77.0%
14. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 91.1% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.5%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.4%
15. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 91.1% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 87.5%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 77.7%
16. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 91.0% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.6% – 87.4%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.4%
17. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 77.8%
18. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.4% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.2%
19. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 90.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 87.1%
- Challenging locations: 61.0% – 78.3%
20. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.3% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 77.6%
21. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.4% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 77.8%
22. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.1% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.9%
23. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 90.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 86.5%
- Challenging locations: 66.0% – 79.4%
24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 89.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 80.8% – 85.6%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.0%
Key Insights
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 88.8%) and the #24 city (New York City at 84.1%) is 4.7 percentage points. This 0.2-point spread between #1 and #2 city suggests meaningful geographic variation in Cafes viability — city selection matters significantly for this category.
Strong performers: 24 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Cafes.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Cafe is 86.6%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Cafes:
- Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 89% average survivability score for Cafes — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Cafes, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Low market saturation: Top cities for Cafes have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.
- Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
StreetSpring analyzes millions of data points with AI to forecast business survivability across U.S. neighborhoods. Our models are trained on data from businesses reaching more than 180 million+ Americans. Our proprietary models incorporate data sources not available through any public platform.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
National guides:
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Cafes, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Cafe succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Cafes in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Cafes in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Cafe?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Cafes across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Cafes, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Cafe will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Cafes?
Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for Cafes survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 89%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, a Cafe has approximately a 89% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. San Antonio ranks second, followed by St Louis. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: April 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, San Antonio, St Louis, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, San Diego, Atlanta, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Houston, Denver, Chicago, Miami, Washington DC, Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, New York City.