City Survivability Rankings for Cafe
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Cafes across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Cafe to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Cafe is Portland — 89% average survivability
- 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Cafe survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 84%
- National average survivability score for Cafe: 86.6%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Cafes
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Cafe succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Cafe?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Cafes?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening a Cafe in the United States, with an average 89% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are San Antonio with 89%, and St Louis with 88%. With a 86.6% national average and 24 cities clearing 80%, Cafes represent a category with meaningful upside in well-selected markets. These averages mask significant neighborhood-by-neighborhood variation; a lower-ranked city can still contain high-potential storefronts. These rankings reflect data through early 2026 — check StreetSpring for the latest figures before any location decision.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Cafe city survivability rankings — Portland leads among 24 US metros at 89% in 2026
All 24 Cities Ranked for Cafes
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Cafes:
1. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 92.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 85.2% – 89.8%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.8%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Portland →
Where mid-ranked cities still beat top-ranked spots locally
2. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 92.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 85.0% – 89.6%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.7%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in San Antonio →
3. St Louis
- Best locations: 92.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.8% – 89.4%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.5%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in St Louis →
4. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 91.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.9% – 88.8%
- Challenging locations: 56.0% – 78.2%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Charlotte →
5. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 91.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.9% – 88.7%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 78.4%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Orlando →
6. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 91.6% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.7% – 88.4%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 78.5%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Phoenix →
7. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 91.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.5% – 88.3%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 78.1%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Tampa Bay →
8. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 91.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.7% – 88.2%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 78.6%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Detroit →
9. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.8% – 88.1%
- Challenging locations: 61.0% – 79.1%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Baltimore →
10. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.6% – 88.1%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 78.8%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in San Diego →
11. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.4% – 88.0%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 78.2%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Atlanta →
12. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 91.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.2% – 87.8%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 78.2%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Minneapolis →
Reading the gap from #1 to the median city
13. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 91.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.7%
- Challenging locations: 55.0% – 77.0%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in San Francisco →
14. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 91.1% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.5%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.4%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Los Angeles →
15. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 91.1% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 87.5%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 77.7%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Seattle →
16. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 91.0% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.6% – 87.4%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.4%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Houston →
17. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 77.8%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Denver →
18. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.4% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.2%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Chicago →
19. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 90.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 87.1%
- Challenging locations: 61.0% – 78.3%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Miami →
20. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.3% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 77.6%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Washington DC →
21. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.4% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 77.8%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Boston →
22. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.1% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.9%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Philadelphia →
23. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 90.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 86.5%
- Challenging locations: 66.0% – 79.4%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in Dallas →
24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 89.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 80.8% – 85.6%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.0%
- Explore Cafe neighborhoods in New York City →
Key Insights
| Signal | Where strong-survivability cities outperform | What drags weaker cities down |
|---|---|---|
| Anchor-tenant density | Cities with high concentration of universities, hospitals, transit hubs within a 1-mile radius of typical storefronts. | Cities where anchor institutions are isolated in suburbs or single-purpose campuses with no street-level spillover. |
| Market size vs saturation | Mid-sized metros with established demand but room for new entrants — under-served pockets in 1.5M–5M population markets. | Either tier-1 cities saturated with national chains, or thin markets under 500K population where demand can't sustain a category. |
| Cross-subtype clustering | Cities where the subtype clusters near complementary categories (e.g., coffee shops near coworking + gyms). | Cities where the subtype is dispersed across isolated storefronts without supporting foot-traffic. |
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 88.8%) and the #24 city (New York City at 84.1%) is 4.7 percentage points. A 0.2-point gap separating Portland and San Antonio indicates that for Cafes, choosing the right metro is a higher-stakes decision than for many other business types.
Where this ranking confirms the conventional wisdom
Strong performers: 24 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Cafes.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Cafe is 86.6%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Cafes:
- Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 89% average survivability score for Cafes — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Cafes, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Low market saturation: Top cities for Cafes have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.
- Geographic distribution: The top cities span multiple U.S. regions, giving franchise operators or multi-location owners diverse market options without concentrating risk.
Our AI platform forecasts business outcomes at the address level — giving entrepreneurs and landlords alike a data-driven edge. StreetSpring measures competition through a 30-factor framework. These insights come from StreetSpring's exclusive, in-house forecasting models.
Best Neighborhoods Across the Spectrum
Where you open matters more than which city ranks highest. The strongest neighborhoods for Cafes can be found across the entire national distribution:
Portland — ranked #1 nationally — the strongest market for Cafes
- Hough (71% survivability)
- Kenton (70% survivability)
- Irvington (65% survivability)
- Gresham (64% survivability)
- Eliot (64% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for Portland →
San Francisco — ranked #13 of 24 — a middle-of-the-pack national market
- Hayes-Valley (79% survivability)
- Tenderloin (78% survivability)
- Cow-Hollow (77% survivability)
- Nob-Hill (77% survivability)
- Russian-Hill (77% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for San Francisco →
New York City — ranked #24 of 24 — among the lower-ranked national markets
- Norwood (80% survivability)
- Bedford-Park (79% survivability)
- Rockaway-Park (79% survivability)
- Van-Nest (79% survivability)
- Parkchester (78% survivability)
See full neighborhood rankings for New York City →
A Cafe can succeed in a city ranked #1 or #24 — what matters is finding the right neighborhood within that market.
Visual Data
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
- Survivability Rankings for Cafe in Portland
- Business Survivability Rankings: Portland
- Survivability Rankings for Cafe in San Antonio
- Business Survivability Rankings: San Antonio
- Survivability Rankings for Cafe in St Louis
- Business Survivability Rankings: St Louis
- Survivability Rankings for Cafe in Charlotte
- Business Survivability Rankings: Charlotte
- Survivability Rankings for Cafe in Orlando
- Business Survivability Rankings: Orlando
National guides:
- National Neighborhood Survivability Rankings for Cafes
- Neighborhood Survivability Rankings: Portland
When does StreetSpring refresh the city rankings?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Cafes, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
What about cities outside the top 10 — can Cafes thrive there?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Cafes in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Cafes in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
How can I narrow down cities for a Cafe?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Cafes across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Cafes, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Cafe will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which city ranks first for Cafes?
Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for Cafes survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 89%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, a Cafe has approximately a 89% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. San Antonio ranks second, followed by St Louis. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: May 9, 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, San Antonio, St Louis, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Baltimore, San Diego, Atlanta, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Houston, Denver, Chicago, Miami, Washington DC, Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, New York City.