City Survivability Rankings for Grocery Store

StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Grocery Stores across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Grocery Store to succeed.

•16 min read

Quick Summary

  • Survivability Score: the projected chance a business type lasts two or more years at a specific address
  • The highest-ranked city for Grocery Store is Denver: 84.5% at a good address, 73.9% at a typical address
  • Dallas is left out of this ranking while a gap in its input data is repaired, and San Antonio is left out because it has too few scored locations to rank fairly
  • 6 of 22 analyzed US metros average above 70% for Grocery Store survivability at a typical address
  • The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 74.7%
  • National average chance of lasting two or more years for Grocery Store: 68.0%
  • Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 22 US metro areas · Full methodology →

Table of Contents

Summary

According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Denver ranks as the #1 city for opening a Grocery Store in the United States, with an 84.5% chance of lasting two or more years at a good address. Following close behind are Charlotte with 84.1%, and Atlanta with 84.1%. StreetSpring's 22-city analysis places the national average for Grocery Stores at 68.0%, a baseline that Denver comfortably exceeds. That said, city averages don't tell the whole story: there are standout locations even in areas that appear less suitable at first glance. Survivability rankings evolve as neighborhoods change; always verify with the most recent StreetSpring dataset before signing a lease.

Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →

Grocery Stores city survivability range chart: Denver vs New York City (2026)

Best-to-worst Grocery Store survivability within individual metros: Denver, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Boston and New York City. Each box spans the middle of that metro's range; whiskers are its best and worst locations (2026).

All 22 Cities Ranked for Grocery Stores

Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 22 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Grocery Stores:

#MetroMetro areaChance of lasting two or more years at a good address
1DenverDenver-Aurora-Centennial, CO84.5%
2CharlotteCharlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC84.1%
3AtlantaAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA84.1%
4HoustonHouston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX84.1%
5OrlandoOrlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL83.2%
6SeattleSeattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA82.8%
7Washington DCWashington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV82.8%
8MinneapolisMinneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI82.3%
9St. LouisSt. Louis, MO-IL82.3%
10DetroitDetroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI81.4%
11PhoenixPhoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ81.4%
12PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD81.4%
13BaltimoreBaltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD81.0%
14PortlandPortland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA80.0%
15ChicagoChicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN80.0%
16San FranciscoSan Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA79.6%
17Tampa BayTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL79.2%
18San DiegoSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA78.7%
19Los AngelesLos Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA78.7%
20MiamiMiami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL77.8%
21BostonBoston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH76.9%
22New York CityNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ74.7%

1. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO

2. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

  • At a good address: 84.1%
  • At a typical address: 76.0%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.4%

3. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

  • At a good address: 84.1%
  • At a typical address: 74.4%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.0%

4. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX

5. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

  • At a good address: 83.2%
  • At a typical address: 73.2%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.4%

6. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

7. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

8. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

9. St. Louis Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL

  • At a good address: 82.3%
  • At a typical address: 69.3%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.0%

10. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

11. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

12. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

13. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

  • At a good address: 81.0%
  • At a typical address: 67.5%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.0%

14. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

  • At a good address: 80.0%
  • At a typical address: 65.0%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.0%

15. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN

16. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA

17. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

  • At a good address: 79.2%
  • At a typical address: 66.1%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.0%

18. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

  • At a good address: 78.7%
  • At a typical address: 65.3%
  • Best scored location: 85.0%
  • Weakest scored location: 49.0%

19. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

20. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

21. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

22. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

Key Insights

Moderate variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Denver at 84.5%) and the #22 city (New York City at 74.7%) is 9.80 percentage points. Denver leads Charlotte by 0.4 points. For Grocery Stores, the metro matters far less than the block.

Challenging markets: 1 city falls below 60% survivability, suggesting more difficult market conditions.

National average: Across all 22 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Grocery Store is 68.0%.

What Makes These Cities Stand Out?

The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Grocery Stores:

  • Strong survivability signals: Denver leads with a 74% average chance of lasting two or more years for Grocery Stores: significantly above the national average for this business category.
  • Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Grocery Stores, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
  • Foot traffic infrastructure: High-scoring cities combine transit access, walkable commercial corridors, and anchor tenants that drive consistent daily traffic past storefronts.
  • Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.

The data behind these rankings comes from our proprietary AI models, trained on millions of real-world business outcomes across the U.S. Our forecasting engine processes data from over 24 metro areas covering 180+ million consumers. Every forecast is powered by StreetSpring's private data models.

City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:

National guides:

How current is this ranking?

Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates: particularly for Grocery Stores, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.

Can a Grocery Store succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?

Yes, our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Grocery Stores in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Grocery Stores in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align, even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.

What tools can help me choose the right city for a Grocery Store?

StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Grocery Stores across all 22 metros we track. For this category specifically, the model reads competition density, the consumer spending index for Grocery Stores, and Census neighborhood characteristics such as the housing vacancy rate, and turns them into the projected chance that a Grocery Store lasts two or more years at a given address. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.

Try the Survivability Score tool →

Which US city has the best survivability for Grocery Stores?

Denver ranks as the #1 city in the US for Grocery Stores survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average 74% chance of lasting two or more years. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Denver, a Grocery Store has approximately a 74% chance of still operating after two years, above the national average for this category. Charlotte ranks second, followed by Atlanta. The full ranking reflects data across 22 major US metro areas: see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.

Last reviewed: October 2026 by Robert Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring

Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.

View national technical data

StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and walkability data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.

Methodology: Each metro's figures pool the scored locations in its published neighborhoods. Metros are ranked the way the national data file ranks them, on the chance of lasting two or more years at a good address; the typical-address figure is shown alongside. Coverage includes 22 major US metropolitan areas: Denver, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Orlando, Seattle, Washington DC, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Detroit, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Portland, Chicago, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Los Angeles, Miami, Boston, New York City. StreetSpring scores 500+ business types: 153 base business types, most of them at 5 price points, which is 569 type-and-price combinations you can choose in the tool.