Updated 2026-10-05. Data version 2026.10.05.
Charlotte and Atlanta tie for first of the 22 metros ranked here. Averaged over the 146 business types every metro carries, a new business at a good address in either has a projected 83.5% chance of lasting two or more years; Charlotte is first on the typical address (73.7% against 73.0%). New York City is lowest at 77.1%. The whole field spans 6.4 points, less than the 30.4-point gap between the best and toughest neighborhood inside Denver alone.
Ordered by the projected chance a new business at a good address lasts two or more years. Neighborhood percentages are at a good address; spread is the gap in points between the best and toughest ranked neighborhood.
“and N others”: other ranked places of the same kind print the same figure; the one named is the metro file's own first- or last-ranked place.
| # | Metro | At a good address | Typical address | Best neighborhood | Toughest neighborhood | Spread | Neighborhoods ranked | File |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte | 83.5% | 73.7% | Henderson Circle and 1 other 84.4% | Hembstead 71.9% | 12.5 | 45 | CSV |
| 2 | Atlanta | 83.5% | 73.0% | Old Fourth Ward and 3 others 84.5% | Perkerson and 1 other 73.0% | 11.5 | 56 | CSV |
| 3 | Denver | 83.3% | 72.1% | Platt Park 84.6% | Trails at First Creek 54.2% | 30.4 | 186 | CSV |
| 4 | Houston | 83.2% | 72.5% | Midtown 84.5% | Medical Center Area 76.3% | 8.2 | 57 | CSV |
| 5 | Orlando | 83.1% | 72.2% | Colonial Town Center 84.5% | Spring Lake 79.2% | 5.3 | 13 | CSV |
| 6 | Seattle | 82.5% | 70.1% | Fremont and 1 other 84.5% | Somerset 68.7% | 15.8 | 94 | CSV |
| 7 | Minneapolis | 82.3% | 70.6% | Windom 84.1% | Ventura Village 67.4% | 16.7 | 64 | CSV |
| 8 | St. Louis | 82.2% | 69.7% | Bevo Mill 84.1% | Hamilton Heights 67.4% | 16.7 | 61 | CSV |
| 9 | Washington DC | 82.0% | 67.5% | U Street Corridor and 3 others 84.4% | Tara-Leeway Heights 60.9% | 23.5 | 129 | CSV |
| 10 | Baltimore | 81.3% | 67.8% | Curtis Bay 83.6% | Sandtown-Winchester 58.6% | 25.0 | 60 | CSV |
| 11 | Detroit | 81.1% | 68.6% | O'Hair Park 83.9% | Marina District 68.0% | 15.9 | 141 | CSV |
| 12 | Philadelphia | 81.0% | 67.7% | Hunting Park 83.9% | Center City 55.1% | 28.8 | 127 | CSV |
| 13 | Los Angeles | 81.0% | 65.6% | Irvine Spectrum 84.4% | Northwood Point 62.3% | 22.1 | 173 | CSV |
| 14 | Miami | 80.9% | 65.4% | Flagler Heights 84.5% | Leslie Estates 54.4% | 30.1 | 92 | CSV |
| 15 | Phoenix | 80.8% | 67.4% | Superstition Springs 84.0% | Rio Vista 62.6% | 21.4 | 28 | CSV |
| 16 | Chicago | 80.8% | 65.5% | Palmer Square 84.4% | Marynook 59.1% | 25.3 | 99 | CSV |
| 17 | San Diego | 80.8% | 67.3% | Old Town 84.0% | Robinhood-Bon Vivant 64.9% | 19.1 | 83 | CSV |
| 18 | San Francisco | 80.5% | 64.7% | West Berkeley 84.0% | Colony Park 55.2% | 28.8 | 107 | CSV |
| 19 | Portland | 80.1% | 64.8% | Central Beaverton 84.4% | Roseway 63.3% | 21.1 | 47 | CSV |
| 20 | Tampa Bay | 79.7% | 65.4% | Tampa Heights 84.4% | Bayshore Beautiful 79.7% | 4.7 | 13 | CSV |
| 21 | Boston | 79.2% | 64.4% | Winter Hill 84.3% | Beacon Hill 61.8% | 22.5 | 52 | CSV |
| 22 | New York City | 77.1% | 61.5% | West Side, Jersey City 84.4% | Tudor City 54.3% | 30.1 | 180 | CSV |
A whole town spans many locations, so its best corridor outscores a small, uniform city neighborhood at a good address. Each metro's published file therefore ranks its neighborhoods and its towns in separate lists, and this page follows those lists exactly: 1,907 neighborhoods and 465 towns are ranked across the 22 metros. A neighborhood is only ever compared with neighborhoods, and a town with towns.
Towns around each metro, ranked in their own list at a good address. Metros whose file ranks no town are not listed.
“and N others”: other ranked places of the same kind print the same figure; the one named is the metro file's own first- or last-ranked place.
| Metro | Best town | Toughest town | Towns ranked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | Mooresville 84.4% | Lancaster 80.0% | 13 |
| Atlanta | Marietta 84.0% | Decatur 77.2% | 14 |
| Denver | Parker and 1 other 82.8% | Holly Hills 76.2% | 8 |
| Houston | Webster and 1 other 84.5% | Cinco Ranch 74.4% | 29 |
| Orlando | Fern Park 84.1% | St. Cloud 78.9% | 14 |
| Seattle | Lynnwood 83.3% | Alderwood Manor 77.9% | 23 |
| Minneapolis | Buffalo 84.0% | Excelsior 74.9% | 20 |
| St. Louis | St Peters 84.1% | Warson Woods 67.8% | 69 |
| Washington DC | Tysons 84.1% | Forest Glen 73.8% | 14 |
| Baltimore | Aberdeen 84.3% | Taneytown 74.1% | 40 |
| Detroit | Howell 84.4% | Oxford 76.3% | 40 |
| Philadelphia | Millbourne 83.5% | Media 77.6% | 11 |
| Los Angeles | Lawndale and 1 other 83.6% | Citrus and 1 other 74.9% | 20 |
| Miami | Wilton Manors 84.2% | El Portal 66.5% | 30 |
| San Diego | San Marcos 82.4% | Bostonia 68.3% | 16 |
| San Francisco | San Mateo 82.5% | Fremont 72.6% | 6 |
| Portland | Tigard 83.5% | Troutdale 75.1% | 12 |
| Tampa Bay | Brandon 82.5% | Zephyrhills 73.3% | 5 |
| Boston | East Pepperell and 1 other 84.0% | Cambridge 65.5% | 72 |
| New York City | Hoboken 83.3% | Inwood 72.3% | 9 |
Dallas is held out of this page while its census inputs are repaired and the metro is rescored; no figure for it is shown until then. San Antonio is held out of this page because the neighborhoods StreetSpring can map there cover too little of the metro to compare fairly; no figure for it is shown until that improves. Their scores remain in the published files, and this page adds them back when the hold clears.
| Metro | Why it is not ranked |
|---|---|
| Dallas | Held out of this page while its census inputs are repaired and the metro is rescored; no figure for it is shown until then. |
| San Antonio | Held out of this page because the neighborhoods StreetSpring can map there cover too little of the metro to compare fairly; no figure for it is shown until that improves. |
A model trained on 570,000+ historical business outcomes and 100+ location factors scores individual locations. A metro's figure averages, across 146 business types, the projected chance a new business lasts two or more years at a good address, the 90th percentile of its scored locations. The ranked neighborhoods and towns rest on 298,889 scored locations. A place is ranked only with at least 10 scored locations and 5 places of its kind.
What the number is. A model trained on 570,000+ historical business outcomes and 100+ location factors scores individual locations. A metro's figure is the mean, across the 146 business types the national file carries for every metro ranked here, of the projected chance a new business lasts two or more years at a good address (p90_survivability_score_for_business_subtype_in_city, the 90th percentile of the metro's scored locations); the typical-address column takes the mean of the average column instead. Each type's score is itself an average across the price points scored separately in the tool. Neighborhoods and towns are read from each metro's own file: its neighborhood_overall_rank, ranked on neighborhood_overall_score, the mean good-address score of the place's ranked business types, with neighborhoods and towns in separate lists. A place is ranked only with at least 10 scored locations and at least 5 places of its kind in the metro.
Reproduce it. To reproduce a metro's figure, open the national CSV and keep one row per city: city_overall_score is the good-address figure and city_overall_avg_score the typical one, the means of the p90 and average columns over the business types every metro carries. To reproduce a metro's best and toughest neighborhood, open its CSV, filter place_kind to neighborhood, keep one row per neighborhood and sort by neighborhood_overall_rank.
What it is not. These are projections from location factors, not a count of closures. A metro average also hides the thing that decides most leases: the right business type on a tough block routinely beats the wrong one on the best block in the city.
Source. The published StreetSpring Survivability Datasets, version 2026.10.05: the national file for the metro figures and each metro's file for its neighborhoods and towns. Download the national CSV, browse all the datasets, or read the methodology.