City Survivability Rankings for Bakery
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bakeries across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bakery to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Bakery is Dallas — 75% average survivability
- 16 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Bakery survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is Detroit at 69%
- National average survivability score for Bakery: 70.9%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bakeries
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bakery succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bakery?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bakeries?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Dallas ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bakery in the United States, with an average 75% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are Miami with 74%, and Orlando with 72%. Bakeries consistently deliver a 70.9% survivability average across our 24 analyzed metros, with top-ranked Dallas demonstrating the strongest conditions. Individual locations vary widely; even in lower-scoring cities there are neighborhoods that perform exceptionally well. The best way to use these rankings is as a starting point — layer in your own market research and local knowledge before committing.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Bakery city survivability rankings — Dallas leads among 24 US metros at 75% in 2026
All 24 Cities Ranked for Bakeries
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bakeries:
1. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 82.8% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 71.8% – 76.7%
- Challenging locations: 52.0% – 67.8%
2. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 82.6% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 71.0% – 76.4%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 66.3%
3. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 81.7% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 69.2% – 74.9%
- Challenging locations: 46.0% – 64.5%
4. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 81.4% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 68.3% – 74.4%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.9%
5. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 80.0% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 68.4% – 74.0%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 63.4%
6. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 80.0% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 68.9% – 74.0%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 64.6%
7. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 80.8% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 68.8% – 74.1%
- Challenging locations: 48.0% – 64.6%
8. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 81.1% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.9% – 73.9%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.8%
9. St Louis
- Best locations: 81.0% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.8%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 62.4%
10. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 79.5% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 67.7% – 73.2%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 62.8%
11. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 80.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 62.8%
12. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 79.4% – 90.0%
- Average locations: 67.5% – 73.1%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.5%
13. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 79.0% – 89.0%
- Average locations: 67.4% – 72.9%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 62.4%
14. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 80.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 67.6% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 45.0% – 63.0%
15. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 80.7% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.9% – 73.3%
- Challenging locations: 39.0% – 61.2%
16. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 79.9% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.3% – 72.7%
- Challenging locations: 39.0% – 60.7%
17. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 80.3% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.7%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 61.3%
18. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 79.8% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 66.7% – 72.5%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 61.8%
19. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 79.3% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.2%
- Challenging locations: 43.0% – 61.7%
20. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 80.6% – 94.0%
- Average locations: 66.5% – 72.5%
- Challenging locations: 44.0% – 61.9%
21. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 80.1% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 66.1% – 72.3%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.9%
22. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 79.0% – 91.0%
- Average locations: 66.0% – 71.9%
- Challenging locations: 42.0% – 61.1%
23. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 79.9% – 93.0%
- Average locations: 65.8% – 72.0%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.7%
24. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 79.3% – 92.0%
- Average locations: 65.5% – 71.7%
- Challenging locations: 41.0% – 60.5%
Key Insights
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Dallas at 74.5%) and the #24 city (Detroit at 68.9%) is 5.7 percentage points. For Bakeries, the 0.4-point difference between top and second-ranked cities is a strong signal that geographic market selection directly drives business outcomes.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bakery is 70.9%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bakeries:
- Strong survivability signals: Dallas leads with a 75% average survivability score for Bakeries — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bakeries, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Supply chain access: Cities at the top of this ranking benefit from mature supplier networks for this category, reducing operating costs and inventory lead times.
- Low market saturation: Top cities for Bakeries have fewer direct competitors per square mile than lower-ranked metros, leaving meaningful whitespace for well-positioned new entrants.
Our analysis draws on millions of commercial real estate data points to deliver survivability predictions trusted by professionals nationwide. We apply advanced machine learning to massive commercial real estate datasets to build accurate models. These forecasts are generated by our exclusive analytical framework, built from the ground up for commercial real estate.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
National guides:
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Bakeries, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Bakery succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bakeries in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bakeries in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bakery?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bakeries across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Bakeries, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Bakery will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Bakeries?
Dallas ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bakeries survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 75%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Dallas, a Bakery has approximately a 75% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. Miami ranks second, followed by Orlando. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: April 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Dallas, Miami, Orlando, Tampa Bay, Portland, San Antonio, Phoenix, Los Angeles, St Louis, Denver, Houston, San Francisco, San Diego, Charlotte, New York City, Chicago, Washington DC, Boston, Seattle, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit.