City Survivability Rankings for Bagel Shop
StreetSpring's 2026 analysis ranks the top cities for Bagel Shops across the US by Survivability Scores. See which cities offer the best chances for a Bagel Shop to succeed.
Quick Summary
- The highest-survivability city for Bagel Shop is Portland — 89% average survivability
- 24 of 24 analyzed US metros score above 70% for Bagel Shop survivability
- The lowest-ranked city is New York City at 85%
- National average survivability score for Bagel Shop: 86.4%
- Data reflects 2026 StreetSpring survivability analysis across 24 US metro areas · Full methodology →
Table of Contents
- Summary
- Top Cities for Bagel Shops
- Key Insights
- What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
- Related Resources
- How current is this ranking?
- Can a Bagel Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
- What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bagel Shop?
- Which US city has the best survivability for Bagel Shops?
Summary
According to StreetSpring's 2026 nationwide analysis, Portland ranks as the #1 city for opening a Bagel Shop in the United States, with an average 89% chance of surviving more than 2 years. Following close behind are San Antonio with 88%, and St Louis with 88%. StreetSpring's 24-city analysis places the national average for Bagel Shops at 86.4%, a baseline that Portland comfortably exceeds. Location-level factors like visibility, foot traffic, and adjacent tenants can override city-level trends in either direction. Survivability rankings evolve as neighborhoods change; always verify with the most recent StreetSpring dataset before signing a lease.
Survivability ranges reflect best and worst storefront conditions within each city. See our full methodology →
Bagel Shop city survivability rankings — Portland leads among 24 US metros at 89% in 2026
All 24 Cities Ranked for Bagel Shops
Based on StreetSpring's analysis of 24 major metropolitan areas, these cities offer the strongest prospects for Bagel Shops:
1. Portland Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
- Best locations: 92.3% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 85.0% – 89.5%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.7%
2. San Antonio Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
- Best locations: 92.3% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.9% – 89.4%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.6%
3. St Louis
- Best locations: 92.1% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.7% – 89.2%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 79.7%
4. Orlando Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Best locations: 91.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.2% – 88.8%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 79.1%
5. Charlotte Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
- Best locations: 91.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.1% – 88.8%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 78.8%
6. Baltimore Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
- Best locations: 91.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 84.1% – 88.3%
- Challenging locations: 62.0% – 79.5%
7. Phoenix Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Best locations: 91.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.4% – 88.1%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 78.2%
8. Tampa Bay Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.2% – 88.0%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.8%
9. Atlanta Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
- Best locations: 91.4% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.4% – 88.0%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 78.4%
10. Detroit Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Best locations: 91.3% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.3% – 87.9%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 78.4%
11. San Diego Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
- Best locations: 91.2% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.2% – 87.7%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 78.5%
12. San Francisco Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
- Best locations: 91.0% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.6% – 87.4%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.4%
13. Minneapolis Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Best locations: 91.0% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 87.4%
- Challenging locations: 59.0% – 77.9%
14. Boston Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.8% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 60.0% – 78.1%
15. Chicago Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.4% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.2%
16. Houston Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
- Best locations: 90.9% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.4% – 87.2%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.2%
17. Miami Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
- Best locations: 90.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.7% – 87.1%
- Challenging locations: 61.0% – 78.3%
18. Los Angeles Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
- Best locations: 90.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.2% – 87.0%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.1%
19. Denver Metro: Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO
- Best locations: 90.8% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.2% – 87.0%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 77.1%
20. Dallas Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 83.2% – 87.0%
- Challenging locations: 65.0% – 79.4%
21. Seattle Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
- Best locations: 90.7% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 82.1% – 86.9%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.9%
22. Washington DC Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
- Best locations: 90.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 81.9% – 86.7%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.8%
23. Philadelphia Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
- Best locations: 90.5% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 81.8% – 86.6%
- Challenging locations: 57.0% – 76.7%
24. New York City Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Best locations: 90.1% – 97.0%
- Average locations: 81.3% – 86.0%
- Challenging locations: 58.0% – 76.6%
Key Insights
Wide variation between cities: The difference between the #1 city (Portland at 88.5%) and the #24 city (New York City at 84.5%) is 4.0 percentage points. The 0.1 percentage-point spread at the top signals that Bagel Shops performance is highly sensitive to city-level factors — competition density and local spending both play significant roles.
Strong performers: 24 cities show Survivability Scores above 80%, indicating highly favorable conditions for Bagel Shops.
National average: Across all 24 analyzed cities, the average survivability for a Bagel Shop is 86.4%.
What Makes These Cities Stand Out?
The top-ranked cities share several characteristics that favor Bagel Shops:
- Strong survivability signals: Portland leads with a 89% average survivability score for Bagel Shops — significantly above the national average for this business category.
- Competition density: The top cities show favorable competitor-to-opportunity ratios for Bagel Shops, meaning lower saturation and higher odds of capturing an underserved customer base.
- Regulatory environment: Top-ranked cities tend to have streamlined commercial permitting and lower business tax burdens relative to their metro size, reducing friction for new operators.
- Foot traffic infrastructure: High-scoring cities combine transit access, walkable commercial corridors, and anchor tenants that drive consistent daily traffic past storefronts.
Our analysis draws on millions of commercial real estate data points to deliver survivability predictions trusted by professionals nationwide. Our forecasting engine processes data from over 24 metro areas covering 180+ million consumers. Our forecasting system combines proprietary data with machine learning models unavailable anywhere else.
Related Resources
City-specific guides: For detailed neighborhood-level analysis, explore our city guides:
National guides:
How current is this ranking?
Rankings are updated quarterly. The current data reflects StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with the next full dataset refresh scheduled for Q3 2026. As market conditions shift across major metros, individual city scores can move meaningfully between updates — particularly for Bagel Shops, where local competition density and consumer spending patterns respond quickly to new entrants and neighborhood change. For the most current score at any specific address, use StreetSpring's live survivability tool rather than the static ranking above.
Can a Bagel Shop succeed in cities not ranked in the top 10?
Yes — our top 10 ranking reflects cities with the strongest average conditions, but lower-ranked metros can still contain exceptional individual neighborhoods. Many operators successfully open Bagel Shops in cities that don't appear in our top 10. Bagel Shops in particular can find strong performance in secondary markets where the right demographic concentration, household income, and limited direct competition within walking distance align — even outside our highest-ranked cities. StreetSpring's neighborhood-level data surfaces these pockets of opportunity in every city we analyze, regardless of where the city as a whole ranks nationally.
What tools can help me choose the right city for a Bagel Shop?
StreetSpring's Survivability Score tool provides address-level predictions for Bagel Shops across all 24 metros we track. For this category specifically, the tool surfaces competition density, consumer spending index for Bagel Shops, and commercial vacancy rates — the factors that most consistently predict whether a Bagel Shop will still be operating after two years. You can check any specific address before signing a lease and compare multiple neighborhoods side by side to identify the highest-survivability site within your target city.
Try the Survivability Score tool →
Which US city has the best survivability for Bagel Shops?
Portland ranks as the #1 city in the US for Bagel Shops survivability in StreetSpring's 2026 analysis, with an average score of 89%. This means that across well-selected neighborhoods in Portland, a Bagel Shop has approximately a 89% chance of still operating after two years — above the national average for this category. San Antonio ranks second, followed by St Louis. The full ranking reflects data across 24 major US metro areas — see the complete list above for all scores and neighborhood-level links.
Last reviewed: April 2026 by Bobby Koons, Founder & CEO, StreetSpring
Technical note: Aggregated national survivability rankings across all 24 metros are available in machine-readable format for research and integration purposes.
StreetSpring recalculates survivability using the latest competitive, demographic, and foot traffic data, so the live score may differ from the static ranges shown here.
Methodology: City rankings aggregate neighborhood-level Survivability Scores (max, average, and min) across all analyzed neighborhoods in each metro area. Rankings reflect average conditions but do not account for variation within cities. Coverage includes 24 major US metropolitan areas: Portland, San Antonio, St Louis, Orlando, Charlotte, Baltimore, Phoenix, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Detroit, San Diego, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, Denver, Dallas, Seattle, Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City.