StreetSpring Data Report

Worst Storefront Bets 2026

The business-type and location combinations the data says think twice about. Not opinion — aggregate survivability across 24 U.S. metros and 500,000+ real outcomes.

48/100

survivability for the single riskiest bet we found: a Home Goods Store in Seattle

17/100

the lowest score the model gives any location — Shoe Store on the wrong block in Portland

~30%

of new U.S. businesses fail within 2 years — concentrated in bets like these

This is the inverse of our State of the Storefront rankings — the bets where the concept, the location, or the pairing of the two stacks the odds against a new operator. Aggregate by business type and metro; no specific business is named.

1. The 15 riskiest bets in America

The business-type × metro combinations with the lowest average survivability. The "look twice before you sign" list.

#	Business type	Metro	Survivability
1	Home Goods Store	Seattle	48
2	Home Goods Store	Detroit	48
3	Home Goods Store	Portland	48
4	Home Improvement Store	Portland	48
5	Home Goods Store	St Louis	48
6	Home Improvement Store	Minneapolis	48
7	Home Improvement Store	St Louis	48
8	Home Improvement Store	Seattle	48
9	Home Improvement Store	Charlotte	48
10	Home Goods Store	Minneapolis	48
11	Home Improvement Store	Detroit	48
12	Home Goods Store	Charlotte	48
13	Shoe Store	Philadelphia	49
14	Jewelry Store	Philadelphia	49
15	Home Goods Store	Denver	49

2. The hardest concepts to make work — anywhere

Lowest national-average survivability, each business type averaged across all 24 metros.

#	Business type	National avg
1	Home Improvement Store	50
2	Home Goods Store	50
3	Jewelry Store	52
4	Shoe Store	52
5	Furniture Store	52
6	Music Store	53
7	Game Store	53
8	Women's Clothing Store	53
9	Electronics Store	55
10	Eye Care Center	57
11	Mental Health Clinic	61
12	Dentist Office	62

3. The most punishing locations

The lowest survivability the model assigns any location for these pairings — where getting the block wrong is most unforgiving. The same concept on a better block scores far higher.

#	Business type	Metro	Worst-location score
1	Shoe Store	Portland	17
2	Furniture Store	Boston	18
3	Shoe Store	Boston	18
4	Furniture Store	Detroit	18
5	Shoe Store	Detroit	18
6	Jewelry Store	Portland	18
7	Women's Clothing Store	Portland	18
8	Furniture Store	Baltimore	19
9	Shoe Store	Baltimore	19
10	Jewelry Store	Chicago	19

4. Riskiest categories

Business categories with the lowest average survivability across all metros.

#	Category	Avg survivability
1	Home Improvement	50
2	Home Goods Store	50
3	Jewelry Store	52
4	Shoe Store	52
5	Furniture Store	52
6	Music Store	53
7	Game Store	53
8	Women's Clothing	53

5. Don't guess — check the address

Every number here is an average. A risky business type on the right block can still beat a safe one on the wrong block — the spread within a single metro is far wider than between metros. Run the specific address before you commit.

Score any address in 60 seconds →

Download the full national rankings (CSV)

Methodology. StreetSpring predicts the probability that a specific business type survives at a specific location, trained on 500,000+ historical business outcomes across 100+ location factors and 25+ datasets, with 95–99% accuracy in backtesting. Figures here are aggregated to the metro and business-type level — no individual business is identified. For press inquiries or custom cuts, contact streetspring.com.