StreetSpring Data Report

Worst Storefront Bets 2026

The business-type and location combinations the data says think twice about. Not opinion — aggregate survivability across 24 U.S. metros and 500,000+ real outcomes.

48/100

survivability for the single riskiest bet we found: a Home Goods Store in Seattle

17/100

the lowest score the model gives any location — Shoe Store on the wrong block in Portland

~30%

of new U.S. businesses fail within 2 years — concentrated in bets like these

This is the inverse of our State of the Storefront rankings — the bets where the concept, the location, or the pairing of the two stacks the odds against a new operator. Aggregate by business type and metro; no specific business is named.

1. The 15 riskiest bets in America

The business-type × metro combinations with the lowest average survivability. The "look twice before you sign" list.

#	Business type	Metro	Survivability
1	Home Goods Store	Seattle	48
2	Home Improvement	Portland	48
3	Home Goods Store	Portland	48
4	Home Improvement	Minneapolis	48
5	Shoe Store	Philadelphia	49
6	Jewelry Store	Philadelphia	49
7	Shoe Store	Seattle	49
8	Jewelry Store	Seattle	49
9	Furniture Store	Seattle	49
10	Game Store	Philadelphia	50
11	Furniture Store	Philadelphia	50
12	Women's Clothing	Philadelphia	50
13	Game Store	Miami	50
14	Women's Clothing	Seattle	51
15	Music Store	Detroit	51

2. The hardest concepts to make work — anywhere

Lowest national-average survivability, each business type averaged across all 24 metros.

#	Business type	National avg
1	Home Improvement	50
2	Home Goods Store	50
3	Jewelry Store	52
4	Shoe Store	52
5	Furniture Store	52
6	Music Store	53
7	Game Store	53
8	Women's Clothing	53
9	Electronics Store	55
10	Eye Care Center	57
11	Psychiatrists & Psychologists	61
12	Dentist	62

3. The most punishing locations

The lowest survivability the model assigns any location for these pairings — where getting the block wrong is most unforgiving. The same concept on a better block scores far higher.

#	Business type	Metro	Worst-location score
1	Shoe Store	Portland	17
2	Women's Clothing	Portland	18
3	Jewelry Store	Portland	18
4	Shoe Store	Detroit	18
5	Furniture Store	Boston	18
6	Women's Clothing	Minneapolis	19
7	Furniture Store	Detroit	18
8	Jewelry Store	Philadelphia	19
9	Electronics Store	Philadelphia	20
10	Game Store	Philadelphia	20

4. Riskiest categories

Business categories with the lowest average survivability across all metros.

#	Category	Avg survivability
1	Home Services	50
2	Local Services	65
3	Shopping	65
4	Health & Medical	65
5	Beauty & Spas	67
6	Active Life	68
7	Food	69
8	Automotive	70

5. Don't guess — check the address

Every number here is an average. A risky business type on the right block can still beat a safe one on the wrong block — the spread within a single metro is far wider than between metros. Run the specific address before you commit.

Score any address in 60 seconds →

Download the full national rankings (CSV)

Methodology. StreetSpring predicts the probability that a specific business type survives at a specific location, trained on 500,000+ historical business outcomes across 100+ location factors and 25+ datasets, with 95–99% accuracy in backtesting. Figures here are aggregated to the metro and business-type level — no individual business is identified. For press inquiries or custom cuts, contact streetspring.com.