StreetSpring Data Report

State of the Storefront 2026

Which businesses actually survive — and where. Block-level survivability across 24 major U.S. metros, built from 500,000+ real business outcomes.

~30%

of new U.S. businesses fail within 2 years — not the "50%" the headlines repeat

72 pts

survivability swing for the same business type between the best and worst blocks in a single metro

major U.S. metros analyzed, every major business category

1. Location, not concept, decides who survives

The "50% of small businesses fail" statistic is wrong — the real two-year failure rate is closer to 30%, and it swings dramatically by location and business type. The same concept can be a strong bet on one block and a weak one a mile away.

In the widest case we found, the same business type swings 72 points of survivability between the best and worst locations inside a single metro. Picking the address is most of the decision.

Foot traffic doesn't predict survival either. Across 1,308 commercial neighborhoods in 19 metros, the correlation between walkability and survivability is essentially zero (Pearson +0.04) — and it isn't even consistent city to city. Greenwich Village, NYC is a perfect 100 for walkability, yet its businesses survive at ~78/100 — the same as plenty of quieter blocks. Walkability measures how many people pass by, not whether a specific business can survive among them.

The same logic applies to competition: a crowded market is usually a sign of proven demand, not saturation. Philadelphia's densest coffee corridor packs 18 coffee shops within a single mile, yet a new coffee shop there still scores ~83/100 survivability. The block's fit for a specific business is what moves the odds — which is exactly what we score.

2. The most & least survivable business types

National average survivability (0–100), each business type averaged across all 24 metros.

#	Most survivable	Score
1	American Restaurant	87
2	Pizza Restaurant	87
3	Brunch Restaurant	87
4	Steakhouse	87
5	Deli	87
6	Salad Shop	87
7	Chicken Shop	87
8	Thai Restaurant	87
9	Diner	87
10	Persian Restaurant	87

#	Most at-risk	Score
1	Home Improvement	50
2	Home Goods Store	50
3	Jewelry Store	52
4	Shoe Store	52
5	Furniture Store	52
6	Music Store	53
7	Game Store	53
8	Women's Clothing	53
9	Electronics Store	55
10	Eye Care Center	57

3. Easiest & toughest metros for a new storefront

Average survivability across every business type, ranked by metro.

#	Metro	Avg survivability
1	San Antonio	81
2	Portland	80
3	St Louis	80
4	Orlando	80
5	Charlotte	79
6	Phoenix	79
7	Dallas	79
8	Tampa Bay	79
9	San Diego	78
10	Baltimore	78
11	San Francisco	78
12	Los Angeles	78
13	Atlanta	78
14	Houston	78
15	Detroit	78
16	Miami	78
17	Minneapolis	78
18	Denver	78
19	Washington DC	77
20	Chicago	77
21	Seattle	77
22	Boston	77
23	New York City	77
24	Philadelphia	76

4. Biggest "same business, different block" swings

Where the address matters most — the widest survivability range for a single business type within one metro.

#	Business type	Metro	Worst → best block	Swing
1	Shoe Store	Portland	17 → 89	72 pts
2	Furniture Store	Boston	18 → 89	71 pts
3	Jewelry Store	Philadelphia	19 → 89	70 pts
4	Furniture Store	New York City	20 → 90	70 pts
5	Women's Clothing	Portland	18 → 88	70 pts
6	Shoe Store	New York City	21 → 90	69 pts
7	Electronics Store	Philadelphia	20 → 89	69 pts
8	Jewelry Store	Chicago	19 → 87	68 pts
9	Electronics Store	Portland	21 → 90	69 pts
10	Women's Clothing	Los Angeles	21 → 89	68 pts

5. Same business, best vs. worst metro

The biggest cross-metro gaps — pick the wrong city for your concept and you start in a hole.

#	Business type	Best metro	Worst metro	Gap
1	Women's Clothing	Dallas 61	Philadelphia 50	11 pts
2	Game Store	Dallas 61	Philadelphia 50	11 pts
3	Electronics Store	Dallas 63	Philadelphia 52	11 pts
4	Shoe Store	Dallas 59	Philadelphia 49	10 pts
5	Jewelry Store	Dallas 59	Philadelphia 49	10 pts
6	Furniture Store	Dallas 60	Seattle 49	11 pts
7	Bookstore	Dallas 74	Miami 64	10 pts
8	Videos & Video Game Rental	Dallas 73	Philadelphia 63	10 pts

6. Get the full data

The complete national rankings — every business type, every metro — are free to download.

Download the national rankings (CSV)

Score any address in 60 seconds →

Methodology. StreetSpring predicts the probability that a specific business type survives at a specific location, trained on 500,000+ historical business outcomes across 100+ location factors and 25+ datasets, with 95–99% accuracy in backtesting. Figures here are aggregated to the metro and business-type level. For press inquiries or custom cuts by city or business type, contact streetspring.com.